Milwaukee Brewers get another opportunity to secure the franchise's first World Series championship as they remain in Tampa Bay for one more night on Wednesday.
Milwaukee still leads the series 3-1, but Tampa Bay's dramatic 4-3 walk-off victory in 12 innings forced another game after the Brewers appeared poised to complete a sweep.
Jacob Misiorowski gets the ball for the Brew Crew, while the Rays' pitching plans remain uncertain after an exhausting Game 4.
The Brewers remain in the stronger position and their starting-pitching advantage makes them the team to back.
Brewers vs. Rays betting picks and predictions
Brewers ML (-156)
Milwaukee's Game 4 loss was painful, but it should not erase what the Brewers have accomplished throughout this postseason.
The defeat snapped an eight-game win streak that spanned a Division Series win over the Padres, a sweep of the two-time defending champion Dodgers and the first three games of this World Series, including a 10-1 victory at Tropicana Field in Game 3.
The Rays may have showed ultimate resilience in capturing victory last night, but, from a betting stance, I still have no reason to quit the Brewers now.
Milwaukee has responded with poise under pressure night after night this October with a pesky lineup that produces a new hero every game.
Besides, the Brewers nearly finished the job Tuesday. Rookie shortstop Cooper Pratt hit a solo home run in the top of the 12th inning to give Milwaukee a 3-2 lead, only for Tampa Bay to string together five consecutive baserunners in the bottom half and win on Ben Williamson's walk-off single.
That defeat did expose a potential concern: Milwaukee used seven relief pitchers, including extended appearances from Aaron Ashby and Abner Uribe.
Their availability for Game 5 could be affected, making Misiorowski's performance especially important.
The 24-year-old right-hander delivered five innings of one-run baseball against Tampa Bay in Game 1. He has allowed four earned runs across 13.1 postseason innings and has yet to give up a home run in October.
Misiorowski has not consistently worked deep into games, but his freakish stuff and strikeout ability give Milwaukee a strong chance to control the early innings.
Tampa Bay has not announced its starter and Nick Martinez threw two innings in relief Tuesday, while closer Bryan Baker also worked two frames.
The Rays deserve credit for surviving elimination, but their pitching uncertainty is a significant disadvantage.
At -156, Milwaukee is the pick to take a commanding 4-1 series lead and capture the championship.
Under 6.5 total runs (-101)
A total of 6.5 leaves little room for offensive mistakes, especially after Game 4 required 12 innings to produce seven runs. Still, the Under offers an appealing price in a matchup where Milwaukee has the clearest starting-pitcher advantage.
Misiorowski posted a 1.80 ERA during the regular season and has maintained a 2.70 ERA across three postseason starts. His previous outing against the Rays produced four hits and one earned run over five innings.
If he repeats that performance, Tampa Bay could struggle to build an early lead.
The Rays' bullpen also showed its ability to limit Milwaukee, with five relievers combining for seven scoreless innings before Pratt's home run in the 12th.
However, the workload is a concern after the club needed 205 pitches to get through Game 4. Milwaukee's relief corps is also coming off a long night, so this is not a risk-free Under.
The best path for this wager is an efficient start from Misiorowski and another competitive pitching performance from Tampa Bay, regardless of who takes the mound first.
At nearly even money, the Under is worth considering, though the depleted bullpens make it a more cautious selection than the Milwaukee money line.
It did seem like Milwaukee was a little tighter than usual at the plate Tuesday, which makes sense given the team is on the verge of the organization's first-ever championship and I am betting that some of that tightness carries over here.
Christian Yelich to hit a home run (+900)
2018 National League MVP and Brewers Captain Christian Yelich may have hit .235 with 12 home runs during the regular season, but the 34-year-old has delivered 11 hits, including five RBIs, in 38 postseason at-bats.
In the first three games of this series, he collected four hits to go with two RBIs and four walks. After an 0-for-3 last night, this feels like the night he has his moment and leaves the yard.
If the Brewers are to win it all here, I just have a good feeling he hits a big fly.
He has a .263 lifetime AVG against the Rays pitching staff, with two home runs, and at +900 he offers sneaky value in the home run market.
How can you not be romantic about baseball?
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Brewers vs. Rays odds
Milwaukee Brewers | -156 |
Tampa Bay Rays | +131 |
Run Line | MIL Brewers -1.5 |
Total | O/U 6.5 |
Brewers vs. Rays player props
Home run odds
Jackson Chourio (MIL Brewers) | +525 |
Junior Caminero (TB Rays) | +550 |
Jake Bauers (MIL Brewers) | +600 |
William Contreras (MIL Brewers) | +650 |
Jonathan Aranda (TB Rays) | +800 |
Brice Turang (MIL Brewers) | +800 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
