MLB Home Run Race Odds: Schwarber vs. PCA

Asher Hyre Published: Sep 23 2026 20:51

As the baseball season enters the dog days of summer, the home run race is heating up.

Two guys that hit 50+ homers last season, Cal Raleigh (60) and Aaron Judge (53), have been nursing injuries and not hitting as well as fans are used to which has opened the door for new faces at the top of the home run leaderboard.

Kyle Schwarber and Pete Crow-Armstrong are currently tied for the lead with 45 homers each. The Phillies slugger finished in second place last year with 56 homers, and while he's on pace to hit less than that, he's still favored to end the season with the most. At 33-years-old, he still has one of the quickest bat speeds in the league, doesn't chase much, and barrels up balls with the best of them.

Overall for the season, Schwarber is hitting .233/.353/.508 with 95 RBIs. HIs 45 homers this year are the third-most he's ever hit in a season (46 in 2022, 47 in 2023, 56 in 2025). The DH has been hitting bombs for a while now and has 385 for his career, whereas his competitor for the HR lead is in the midst of a breakout year.

After a slow start at the plate to open the year, PCA has asserted himself as the surefire NL MVP with his other-worldly fielding ability and a bat that is all of a sudden one of the best in the league. He also has a quick bat speed and terrific bat-to-ball skills that lets him barrel balls up at a rate better than 90% of hitters. The season was certainly unexpected as he was renowned for his glove than bat as a prospect and had a then-career high .768 OPS in 2025.

This year, PCA is up to a .953 OPS, slashing .282/.373/.579. He's also just one stolen base away from becoming the first Cub with a 40/40 season.

Each team has five games left in their season: the Phils play the Milwaukee Brewers for two more games before welcoming the Tampa Bay Rays to close out the regular season. The Cubs have two more left against the Miami Marlins at home then travel to Boston for a three-game set against the Red Sox before the playoffs.

Below is a look at the top-10 leading home run hitters, along with the odds for the four players still with a chance to finish with the most homers in the league this season:

2026 Home Run Leaderboard

Player	Home Runs
Kyle Schwarber	45
Pete Crow-Armstrong	45
Yordan Alvarez	41
Pete Alonso	41
Junior Caminero	41
Matt Olson	40
Hunter Goodman	39
Ben Rice	39
Rafael Devers	37
Brandon Lowe, CJ Abrams, Miguel Vargas, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto	33