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MLB Home Run Race Odds: Schwarber, Yordan Lead, Goodman Climbing

As the baseball season enters the dog days of summer, the home run race is heating up.

Two guys that hit 50+ homers last season, Cal Raleigh (60) and Aaron Judge (53), have been nursing injuries and not hitting as well as fans are used to which has opened the door for new faces at the top of the home run leaderboard.

Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez are currently tied for the lead with 33 homers each. The Phillies slugger finished in second place last year with 56 homers and he's on pace to finish with a number around that this season. At 33-years-old, he still has one of the quickest bat speeds in the league, doesn't chase much, and barrels up balls with the best of them.

After Alvarez only played in 48 games last year and didn't perform very well (.797 OPS mostly as a DH), fans were wondering if the guy that hit for a 1.000+ OPS in 2022 would ever be back. Turns out, he's better than ever. With a .326 batting average, 75 RBIs, and 33 homers, he's on track to win the AL Triple Crown and the heavy favorite to win AL MVP for the first time in his career (-270).

Schwarber and Yordan are familiar faces and have been mashing for years, but the next four guys on the leaderboard are relatively new superstars blooming right in front of our eyes.

The Rockies' Hunter Goodman is putting together his second consecutive very-productive season with the bat and he has been on a heater in the last month. He has sole possession of third place with 31 bombs and has put 10 in the seats in 22 games since June 22, including two 3+ home run performances against the Twins and Reds. Don't use the "Coors Field" excuse either when discussing the powerful catcher - he has 18 homers on the road and 13 at home.

Below Goodman are Junior Caminero and Ben Rice each tied for fourth place with 29. The 22-year-old Rays third baseman is an absolute superstar - his 81 home runs though his first 300 games are the 8th most in MLB history. He swings harder than anyone, doesn't strike out much, walks a bunch, and mashes.

Rice has continued his surprising start to his career this year after he was a staple in the middle of the Yankees' lineup last year. As good as he was in 2025, the former 12th-round pick has already surpassed his home run total and is on track to hit around 40 this year.

Below is a look at the top-10 leading home run hitters, along with the odds for each player to finish with the most homers in the league this season with odds provided by bet365:

2026 Home Run Leaderboard

Player

Home Runs

Kyle Schwarber

33

Yordan Alvarez

33

Hunter Goodman

31

Junior Caminero

29

Ben Rice

29

James Wood

28

Matt Olson

26

Byron Buxton

25

CJ Abrams

24

Colson Montgomery

24

*as of July 22nd.

Most Home Runs Odds - 2026 Regular Season

Odds presented by bet365

Player

Odds

Kyle Schwarber

-125

Yordan Alvarez

+160

Junior Caminero

+550

Hunter Goodman

+1100

Ben Rice

+1800

James Wood

+2000

Matt Olson

+3300

Byron Buxton

+8000

Shohei Ohtani

+8000

Colson Montgomery

+10000

*as of July 22nd.

Read the latest MLB news on site.

All odds written in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.

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