Monaco Grand Prix Prediction & Best Bets

The 2026 F1 season has been dominated by Mercedes, who have won each of the first five races, but this weekend's trip to the iconic street circuit in Monte Carlo for the Monaco Grand Prix may well bring a challenge to their fast start.

George Russell won the opening race in Australia for the German manufacturer but since then his teenage teammate Kimi Antonelli has taken over with four successive victories in China, Japan, Miami and Canada.

Russell's breakdown in the last race in Montreal means the Italian has soared into a 43-point lead in the drivers' championship, but the unique challenges of the twisting Monaco circuit will provide the 19-year-old with his toughest test yet in his second season of F1 racing.

Monaco Grand Prix betting picks and predictions

Lewis Hamilton to win (+400)

The odds for the sixth round of the F1 World Championship have a different look to those issued for the most recent races as the Mercedes drivers are not even favored for victory in Monaco.

Much of the teams' success in 2026 has come from the power advantage they have enjoyed in the first year of the latest regulations, but power and top speed are not as useful around the tight and twisting Monaco circuit as they are at most other tracks.

Instead, the market for Sunday's showpiece race is headed by the two Ferrari drivers, with hometown hero Charles Leclerc made a clear favorite at +187 odds.

The reasoning behind the decision is easy enough to understand and appears smart. Ferrari uses a smaller turbocharger in its power unit than other teams, which leaves it vulnerable to the Mercedes-powered cars at higher-speed circuits with long straights, but has some benefits, as already seen with the fast starts the team have been making all season.

The ability to charge their turbo faster is also expected to give them an edge around the narrow streets of Monte Carlo, and Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton were both nimble around the hairpin in Montreal, which bodes well for their chances this week.

Monegasque driver Leclerc is top of the odds list but the gap between him and his rejuvenated teammate Hamilton appears too big and the British driver may offer more value.

Leclerc had endured little success in his home race until his breakthrough success in 2024. At a track where the last three races have been won from pole, the 28-year-old has been beaten twice there after being fastest in qualifying.

One of the low points of his career came in 2021 when he was unable to even start the race from pole after damaging his car in a qualifying crash, while the following year he could finish only fourth after starting from the front.

Leclerc is also coming off a tough weekend in Canada when he was outqualified by Hamilton twice and finished two places behind him in fourth.

Hamilton has a relatively low tally of three Monaco wins given the success he has had in the series, and his last victory there was for Mercedes in 2019, having secured his first Monaco win for McLaren in his second season in 2008.

The seven-time champion had his best result for Ferrari when finishing second in Canada two weeks ago and looks happier in the scarlet car than at any time since his move before the start of last season.

With Ferrari expected to go well at a track where Mercedes have not won any of the last five races, Hamilton should have a decent chance of securing his first win for the team.

Lando Norris to finish 3rd (+450)

The Mercedes car may yet prove to be more capable in Monaco than the odds suggest, but neither of their drivers have shown an affinity for the circuit. George Russell has never finished higher than fifth in six races there, while Kimi Antonelli's first visit in 2025 was ruined by a qualifying crash as he trailed in 18th and last in the grand prix.

Last year's race was won by Lando Norris in his World Championship-winning season for McLaren and he can have high hopes of returning to the podium this year.

A repeat win might be tough, so rather than backing the Briton to finish anywhere in the top three at +110 odds for a podium finish, target a much better payout by taking him to finish exactly third.

McLaren had taken three podium finishes in two races before their tactical blunder in Montreal saw them starting on wet-weather tires on a drying track. Norris was still able to take the lead from third on the grid but, after dropping back in the pack when forced to change tires, he was let down by a gearbox failure.

He and teammate Oscar Piastri should be in line to put up a good show in Monaco, though, and third place looks a reasonable target for the world champion.

Carlos Sainz points finish (+200)

Monaco is a circuit for specialists and Carlos Sainz of Williams can certainly claim to be one of those. The Spanish driver has had 10 consecutive points finishes at Monte Carlo, which is incredible consistency when you consider the mayhem that often ensues in the races at the historic circuit.

Those results have been achieved for five different teams, and while his two podiums there were achieved with Ferrari, last year's 10th place for Williams was also impressive. 

Williams have had three points finishes in the last two Monaco races and Sainz has been in better form than teammate Alex Albon, finishing ninth in three of the last four races.

Monaco Grand Prix outright odds

Charles Leclerc	+187
Lewis Hamilton	+400
Lando Norris	+500
George Russell	+550
Kimi Antonelli	+550
Max Verstappen	+1000
Oscar Piastri	+1200
Isack Hadjar	+12500

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.