The 2026 Formula 1 season took a major twist in the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix a couple of weeks ago as Lewis Hamilton took the race win to break the Mercedes stranglehold, and Ferrari will be hoping to build on that success in the Austrian Grand Prix.
Mercedes had won all six Grands Prix in 2026 as the teams arrived in Spain, with World Drivers' Championship leader Kimi Antonelli heading into the weekend on a five-race winning streak.
And that looked set to continue as George Russell took pole position, but Hamilton produced a flawless performance to clinch his first Grand Prix win for Ferrari, while Antonelli’s engine-related retirement has opened up the World Drivers’ Championship battle.
He is now only 41 points ahead of second-placed Hamilton, while teammate Russell is 50 points adrift.
The Red Bull Ring offers a very different challenge to the drivers and teams than Barcelona, though, and the Silver Arrows will be targeting an instant return to the top step of the podium.
Lenovo Austrian Grand Prix betting picks and predictions
Kimi Antonelli to win (+175)
Even without his retirement, Antonelli was unlikely to challenge Hamilton for the win in the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix last time out, but the Red Bull Ring is a very different circuit and that should tip the scales back in Mercedes' favour.
The three long straights in the first half of the lap reward engine power heavily and, while Ferrari are bringing power-unit upgrades to Austria, the Silver Arrows are still expected to hold the advantage in power output.
Antonelli looked set to beat teammate Russell in Barcelona before his race was ended and he can draw a lot of confidence from his stellar performance so far this season.
It was the first time the Italian had finished outside the top two and he has won five of the last six Grands Prix, including four pole positions and four fastest laps.
With a track well-suited to the Mercedes' strengths, back the teenager to return to the top of the pile on Sunday.
Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 6 (+450)
Alpine and, by extension, Pierre Gasly, endured a miserable 2025, but they have hit the nail on the head with the new regulations and, buoyed by the Mercedes power driving the car, he can claim another strong finish in Austria.
The Frenchman claimed a podium in the Monaco Grand Prix and has finished inside the top six twice, narrowly missing out in Japan and Barcelona.
He finished seventh at both of those Grands Prix but, with the Red Bull Ring rewarding pure horsepower, he can better those results in Austria.
Gasly has finished in the points in five of his eight Austrian Grands Prix and has been on the cusp of the top six twice.
With reliability also a concern in Austria, Gasly could take advantage of any retirements from the leading drivers to claim another top-six finish.
Under 17.5 classified drivers (-120)
As we saw in Barcelona two weeks ago, reliability has played a major role in the 2026 Formula 1 season, with teams still figuring out how to get the best out of their car in the early stages of the new regulations.
Five drivers were not classified in the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix with a further three failing to finish but completing enough laps to be classified, and that is far from an outlier.
Under 17.5 classified drivers landed in both the Canadian and Monaco Grands Prix, and the weather forecast for the Austrian Grand Prix could increase the chances of retirements on Sunday.
There is a heat warning in place, with temperatures expected to soar at the Red Bull Ring.
Due to the altitude and changeable elevation, this is already a circuit that places a lot of strain on engine and brake components, and high temperatures will only serve to compound these issues.
Austrian Grand Prix outright odds
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) | +175 |
George Russell (Mercedes) | +300 |
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) | +500 |
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) | +600 |
Max Verstappen (Red Bull) | +800 |
Lando Norris (McLaren) | +1600 |
Oscar Piastri (McLaren) | +2500 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
