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The Open Championship
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Steve Palmer's Open Championship Prediction and Tips

The final Major of the season is upon us and the greatest golfers on the planet have assembled on Merseyside for the Open Championship - the showpiece occasion at which the famous Claret Jug is presented - and the Racing Post’s Steve Palmer has three selections to follow.

The action starts at 06:35 BST on Thursday. Sunny and calm conditions are expected as England basks in another heatwave.

154th Open Championship Tips and Predictions

Threeballs to Watch

154th Open Championship Favourites

Data-Led 154th Open Championship Analytics

154th Open Championship Outright Prediction

Alternative Tip

Dark Horses to Watch

Who Lifts the Claret Jug?

154th Open Championship

154th Open Championship Tips and Predictions

Outright Prediction: Tommy Fleetwood to win and each-way (14/1)
Alternative Tip: Tyrrell Hatton to win and each-way (30/1)
Dark Horse Tip: Akshay Bhatia to win and each-way (100/1)

Threeballs to watch

09:58 tee time

  • Scottie Scheffler

  • Tyrrell Hatton

  • Bryson DeChambeau

World number one Scottie Scheffler joins LIV stars Tyrrell Hatton and Bryson DeChambeau in a marquee morning group.

10:09 tee time

  • Jordan Spieth

  • Tommy Fleetwood

  • Jon Rahm

The last Birkdale champion, Jordan Spieth, has been grouped with local hero Tommy Fleetwood and two-time Major winner Jon Rahm in a Thursday morning meeting.

15:15 tee time

  • Rory McIlroy

  • Xander Schauffele

  • Matt Fitzpatrick

The afternoon spotlight will fall on two former champions - Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele - who join Matt Fitzpatrick in a late threeball.

154th Open Championship Favourites

Scottie Scheffler missed his first cut in almost four years last week, falling two shots shy of the cut-line in the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club, and the world number one has been a drifting favourite for the Open Championship.

Scheffler can be backed at 15/2 for a successful Open title defence. He romped to a four-shot victory at Royal Portrush 12 months ago, but was the dominant force in golf last year. This season he has won only one tournament - The American Express at the end of January - and that was a low-grade PGA Tour event.

Rory McIlroy has won only once this term, but it was a hugely significant one - the Masters in April. The Northern Irishman has played only five tournaments since his successful Augusta title defence, preferring a light schedule, and he finished seventh in the Scottish Open on Sunday in his Open warm-up spin.

McIlroy is available at 8/1 to win a second Open title this week, having triumphed at Royal Liverpool in 2014. He has eight Open top-10s on his glittering golfing CV.

Matt Fitzpatrick is proving a popular choice with the punting community. The 2022 US Open champion is a 14/1 chance to claim a first Open title on Sunday. The Sheffield man put a previously poor Open record behind him by finishing fourth at Portrush last year.

Data-Led 154th Open Championship Analytics

  • Scottie Scheffler has finished runner-up four times this season

  • Rory McIlroy has finished in the top 10 in the Open eight times

  • Matt Fitzpatrick has won three times on the PGA Tour this season

  • Jon Rahm has won twice on the LIV Golf circuit this season

  • There are two course winners in the field - Padraig Harrington and Jordan Spieth

  • The last 13 Open winners were all inside the top 40 of the world rankings at the time of their success

154th Open Championship Outright Prediction

Tommy Fleetwood to win and each-way (14/1)

Southport-born Tommy Fleetwood is a hero in this part of the world and he has been playing at Royal Birkdale for most of his life. He was under the spotlight in the 2017 Open but was a relatively inexperienced youngster who had never made a cut in the Open. Nine years later, arriving as a FedEx Cup champion, Fleetwood looks ready for the moment.

The ultra-consistent 35-year-old has posted 10 top-15 finishes this season, including five in a row coming into this tournament, and the 2019 Open runner-up tees up for his most suitable assignment of the season this week.

Fleetwood has elevated his game to a new level in the last year or so, winning on the PGA Tour and becoming a Ryder Cup legend; Major glory may be the natural next step.

Alternative Tip

Tyrrell Hatton to win and each-way (30/1)

Three victories in the Dunhill Links Championship, as well as two runner-up finishes, show how much Tyrrell Hatton enjoys links golf, and the 34-year-old Englishman looks well capable of getting into contention at Royal Birkdale.

Hatton, fifth in the 2016 Open and sixth in 2019, has become a regular Major contender over the last three years, finishing fourth in last year's US Open and third in the Masters in April, and he is playing well enough to threaten the Claret Jug.

Dark Horses to Watch

Akshay Bhatia to win and each-way (100/1)

Punters seeking a big-price each-way option should consider Akshay Bhatia, who impressed in the 2019 Walker Cup at Royal Liverpool in his first taste of links golf.

Bhatia is a three-time PGA Tour champion at the age of 24 and he beat an elite field to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in March. A great iron-player with a fantastic short-game, the Californian has a superb record by the coast and finished fifth in the Travelers Championship in his last event.

Who Lifts the Claret Jug?

There seems a strong possibility that an Englishman wins the Open on home soil this week, with Tommy Fleetwood perhaps the most likely.

Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick and Justin Rose are among the most dangerous Englishmen at Birkdale. There are 20 in the field in total.

Read more golf betting tips and predictions on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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