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154th Open Championship First-Round Leader Prediction and Tips

The heatwave across the UK will make for a true test of links golf for this week's 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, which takes up hosting duties of the final Major of the season for an 11th time.

Conditions will be firm and fast, which makes holding the fairways and greens tough, while the prospect of a stiff breeze throughout the tournament will only add to the difficulty of the challenge.

The first tee is scheduled for 06:35 BST on Thursday, with Royal Birkdale member Matthew Baldwin bestowed the honour of hitting the opening shot. He is joined by Thomas Detry and James Nicholas.

World number one Scottie Scheffler is out at 09:58, alongside Tyrrell Hatton and Bryson DeChambeau, while Rory McIlroy is out in the afternoon wave at 15:15 with Xander Schauffele and Matt Fitzpatrick.

154th Open Championship First-Round Leader Tips Summary

Best Bet - Matt Fitzpatrick each-way @ 25/1
Alternative Bet - Robert MacIntyre each-way @
40/1
Alternative Bet - Justin Rose each-way @
40/1

Open Championship

154th Open Championship First-Round Leader Prediction

Best Bet: Matt Fitzpatrick each-way @ 25/1

With there being no draw bias based on the initial forecasts, there are plenty of contenders to pick from in the first-round leader market and Matt Fitzpatrick, who is out in a marquee group with McIlroy and Schauffele, looks capable of making a fast start at the Open Championship.

Already a three-time winner on the PGA Tour this season, the Englishman's game has been trending nicely over his last four starts with form figures of 2-22-4-T3.

The 31-year-old's latest effort came at last week's Scottish Open and he started the tournament off in strong fashion, signing for a score of 67 to sit just two shots back of the early leaders.

Quick starts have become a theme for Fitzpatrick, who was tied-second after 18 holes of the Travelers Championship and tied-third after the opening round of the US Open.

The world number three, who is fourth in round one scoring average on the PGA Tour this year, had a share of the 2025 Open Championship lead after day one and there is every chance he will be at the summit come the end of play on Thursday.

Alternative Bet: Robert MacIntyre each-way @ 40/1

Out in the fifth three-ball at 07:19 on day one is Robert MacIntyre, who has Rickie Fowler and Alex Fitzpatrick for company, and the Scot will be eager to start off strongly in Southport.

Like his Ryder Cup teammate Matt Fitzpatrick, MacIntyre opened up last week's Scottish Open with a round of 67 before ending up taking a share of third at the Renaissance Club, so preparations for this Major have been solid.

The 29-year-old has the short game skills to handle this tough links test, with some deft touches required on these fast greens, while his ability to shape shots will help if the wind picks up.

With three top-10 finishes in six Open appearances, MacIntyre has impressed in this Major and he can put down an early marker to the rest of the field.

Alternative Bet: Justin Rose each-way @ 40/1

Justin Rose continues to mix it with the world's elite at the age of 45 and he heads into the final Major of the year sitting 10th in the world rankings.

The Englishman's longevity in the game is astounding and it is easy to forget that it was the 1998 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale where he burst to worldwide prominence, as he holed out for birdie on the 72nd hole to finish in a tie for fourth and claim the silver medal for the low amateur.

Rose, winner of the Farmers Insurance Open in February this year, has saved some of his best golf in 2026 for the Majors, with a tied-third effort at the Masters followed by a T10 at the PGA Championship and a T11 at the US Open.

The 2013 US Open champion has been two shots off the lead after round one in two of his last four tournaments and he has started the two Opens off on a solid note.

Rose was two strokes off the early pace in 2025 and he sat tied-fourth after round one in 2024. He has vast experience when it comes to links golf and can showcase his skills once more.

Key Tournament Stats

  • This will be the 11th time Royal Birkdale has hosted the Open Championship

  • Jordan Spieth lifted the Claret Jug the last time the Major was played at the Southport course

  • Spieth shot an opening round of 65 to tie for the first-round lead in 2017

  • Padraig Harrington successfully defended his Open title in 2008 at Birkdale, 12 months after triumphing at Carnoustie

  • An Englishman has been leading or tied for the lead after day one of the last three Open Championships

  • Royal Birkdale is a par 70 that will play 7,223 yards this week, which is slightly longer than the 7,156 yards of 2017

Read more golf betting tips and predictions on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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