The FedExCup play-offs begin at TPC Southwind for the FedEx St Jude Championship.
A part of the PGA Tour since 1989, TPC Southwind is a course that demands precision over power. Bermuda rough and water hazards means players will have to be cautious off the tee, but for those who find the fairway, plenty of short approaches facilitate low scoring, with around two-thirds of second shots coming from inside 175 yards.
A look at the list of winners at TPC Southwind does present one common thread: excellent iron players.
Since its shift to a WGC event in 2019 and then a FedExCup event in 2022, the winners read: Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Abraham Ancer, Will Zalatoris, Lucas Glover, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose.
While they don’t all share excellent putting nor long or accurate driving, they’ve all been superb iron players.
With the fairways not the easiest to hit, and there being a fair penalty for missing them, players will often lay back off the tee, at risk of losing around half a shot to the field for failing to find the short grass. It also adds up to a relatively low greens in regulation figure with around five or six greens missed per rounds, forcing good scrambling.
As with last week’s Wyndham Championship, putting surfaces are Bermudagrass.
All in all though, despite being a par-70, TPC Southwind is gettable enough, and winning scores are invariably in the mid-to-high-teens.
Rory McIlroy returns to TPC Southwind after missing last season, but where does he rank in our FedEx St Jude Championship Power Rankings? Read on to find out.
5 - Rory McIlroy
As low as fifth in the FedEx St Jude Power Rankings, Rory McIlroy has never really shown a propensity for TPC Southwind. In his last six starts, his finishes read T4, T47, T12, MC, T3, T68.
The T4 from 2019 ought to have been a win when shooting a blistering 62 on Saturday to take a lead into Sunday, only to shoot six shots worse than eventual winner Brooks Koepka on the Sunday.
It’s not a course McIlroy can take apart with his distance and his lack of match practice this season seems to be hurting more than helping.
McIlroy took a month off competition to get as many Augusta reps in as possible in defence of his Masters crown, a plan which worked to perfection as the Northern Irishman went back to back.
But since then we’ve seen McIlroy at two Signature Events (T19, T12), the Scottish Open (T7) and three majors (T7, T32, T40).
No one can deny McIlroy his desire for a better work-life balance as he enters the twilight of his career, but it seems to be making it harder to win these sorts of events.
4 - Tommy Fleetwood
Any course that negates distances, emphasises accuracy and requires excellent iron play should suit Tommy Fleetwood down to the ground.
TPC Southwind ticks plenty of boxes for the Englishman, whose finishes there read T4, T35, T46, T3, T22, T3. Fleetwood ought to have won there last year when getting his nose in front with three holes to play only to go 5-5 on 16 and 17 when JJ Spaun and Justin Rose went 4-3, leaving Fleetwood behind as they headed to a play-off.
The early parts of the season were plagued by inconsistency for Fleetwood, but he’s turned things around of late. T4 at the Memorial where he led late on Sunday, Fleetwood then recorded four straight top-15s at the Canadian Open, US Open, Travelers Championship and Scottish Open before a T4 at The Open.
Fleetwood’s game is trending in the right direction, and returning to a venue where he’s played so well in the past, he’s got every chance of a second PGA Tour win.
3 - Matt Fitzpatrick
Matt Fitzpatrick might have eclipsed Tommy Fleetwood as the world’s best player at courses that demand elite ball-striking and negate distance.
This season, Fitzpatrick has been solo-fourth at the Travelers Championship, runner-up at the Players – where he ought to have won – T14 at Pebble Beach and won at Innisbrook and Harbour Town.
Venues that require a bit more power off the tee have been Fitzpatrick’s undoing this year – T41 at Bay Hill, T52 at Quail Hollow, T36 at Muirfield Village – but he’s been superb at more fitting courses.
In the last seven years, Fitzpatrick has been T4, T6, T57, T5, T66, T18, T32 at TPC Southwind, and while his recent results haven’t been anything to write home about, he does have plenty of positive experience in this part of the world. Fitzpatrick shot the round of the day on Friday in 2019 and 2020 at the old WGC event, and took the lead going into the weekend in the 2019 edition.
Fitzpatrick’s last outing was a disappointing missed cut at The Open, but his prior form figures of 2-22-4-T3 provide plenty of confidence.
2 - Sam Burns
Is Sam Burns actually playing well, or does it just seem that way because of his recent major performances? It’s now safe to say he’s also raising his game away from the big four.
A poor start to the season – T27, MC, T6, MC, MC – was turned around with a T13 at the Players, followed by a T21 at the Houston Open and a T7 at the Masters. Burns was then T16 at the RBC Heritage before failing to crack the top 25 in his next three outings.
The five-time PGA Tour winner then found himself in a four-way tie at the Memorial with just two holes to play, ultimately finishing T4.
Burns was a big favourite to win The Open when making an early birdie to take a two-shot lead on Sunday before falling away to finish third, and this came on the back of an impressive T12 at the Travelers Championship.
Burns has now gained strokes on approach in 11 of his last 12 starts, and has gained at least 1.45 strokes in four of his last five outings, ranking fifth, third, seventh and fourth in those four. He also ranks first in the field for SG: APP over the last eight tournaments as per Golf Betting System.
Boasting form figures of T2-T20-T52-T5-T28 at TPC Southwind, including a three-way play-off defeat in 2021, Burns will feel very much at home this week.
Often referred to as ‘Bermuda Burns’ for his liking of these putting surfaces, things seem to be lining up for the 30-year-old.
1 - Scottie Scheffler
Harold McSpaden’s record of 13 runner up finishes in a single PGA Tour season, set in 1945, won’t ever be broken, but Scottie Scheffler’s given it his best shot.
Cameron Young in 2022 became the only golfer with five runner-up finishes in a season in the last 40 years, and Scheffler may well break that particular record, currently on five for the current campaign.
What’s so unusual is that all of Scheffler’s runner-up finishes have been solo-seconds; no ties.
He was first home after Rory McIlroy at the Masters, lost in a play-off to Matt Fitzpatrick at the RBC Heritage, ran into an inspired Cameron Young at the Cadillac Championship, lost in a play-off to Viktor Hovland at the Travelers Championship and was beaten by the prodigious Jackson Koivun last time out at the 3M Open.
It’s no secret that Scheffler, winless since the American Express in January, hasn’t been as dominant as in recent years, but he’s playing more than well enough to have multiple victories to his name.
Scheffler was two off the lead going into the weekend here in 2024 and two off the lead going into the final round in 2025, though a win at TPC Southwind eludes him.
A second win of the season for Scheffler has been a long, long time coming. Is this the week he finally gets over the line?
