Minnesota Twins snapped a four-game skid on Wednesday and will look to split a four-game series in Cleveland against the Guardians on Thursday.
The Cleveland Guardians are looking to keep pace with the Chicago White Sox atop the AL Central while taking the series.
The Twins currently lead the season series 5-4, and after this matchup, just three games in Minnesota remain in mid-September.
Cleveland won 13-4 on Monday on the back of seven home runs, including six off Twins ace Joe Ryan.
The Guardians then won 5-2 on Tuesday behind All-Star left-handed pitcher Parker Messick, and three runs between the sixth and seventh frames. In game three, the Guardians actually outhit the Twins 13-11, but six unearned runs, in part due to three errors, led to a 10-6 loss.
Thursday's starting pitching matchup is particularly intriguing, as the two right-handers have had nearly identical 2026 campaigns to this point.
Twins vs. Guardians betting picks and predictions
Twins ML (+110)
Guardians starter Gavin Williams is 10-5 this year, which is great, but the ERA has recently dipped to 4.00, despite an excellent 1.15 WHIP and 145 strikeouts in 119.1 innings.
The problem has been the 20 home runs he has allowed, 11 of which have come since the start of June. That occasional loud contact is the culprit for sending his ERA from 3.07 at the end of May to where it currently stands.
He actually got rocked by the Twins at home on May 10, allowing five runs on 10 hits in six innings, but bounced back in Minnesota a couple weeks ago with 11 strikeouts and two runs allowed over seven innings.
What bodes well for Williams here is his track record in day games (3.22 ERA), at home (3.45 ERA) and against the Twins (.213 AVG and .557 OPS allowed in 108 at-bats, with just one home run surrendered).
What's problematic is that the Twins' two best hitters this season, Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers, have historically owned him, going a combined 10-for-26 with three doubles.
Additionally, the Twins have raked against righties (5th in MLB with a .758 OPS) and they have raked on the road (5th in MLB with a .738 OPS).
Conversely, the Guardians rank just 19th at home (.717 OPS) and 22nd vs RHP (.707 OPS).
Opposing Williams is young right-hander Taj Bradley. Bradley owns a 9-4 record, a 3.85 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and 124 strikeouts in 107.2 innings. Like Williams, Bradley had a 3.21 ERA at the end of May and it has since climbed due to 10 home runs allowed between June and July.
Bradley did own the Guardians a couple of weeks ago at home, though, striking out 10 while allowing just one run on three hits over seven innings. Bradley has been excellent during the day (3.49 ERA) and is facing off against a Guardians offense that ranks 26th in MLB in long balls vs RHP.
The Twins have the fourth-most home runs against RHP. The sun is out, and some long balls should be expected from Minnesota.
Over 7.5 total runs (-115)
We have seen some runs in this series, and asking for eight during a day game with two pitchers prone to giving up the long ball isn't a lot to ask.
The Guardians may have their top bullpen arms rested, but Williams could give up a few home runs that help cash this Over before those high-leverage relievers even enter the game.
In addition, the biggest bats in this matchup have had success against the opposing pitcher. We've already covered Jeffers' and Buxton's success. On the Guardians' side, rookie Chase DeLauter, Rhys Hoskins and Jose Ramirez, who are the team's top three home run leaders, are a combined 7-for-15 with three doubles and a home run.
Finally, the Twins have been a massive over team this year, with their games going over the total 61 times. If the Guardians put up a crooked number in this one, it will likely be due to the Twins' bullpen, which ranks 27th with a 5.09 ERA.
Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+400)
Buxton sees Williams well, and he sat out Wednesday's game, which means he had an extra day to prepare for Williams. Buxton has had an incredible season, racking up a .275/.330/.572 slash line, which is good for an elite .902 OPS. He leads the team with 25 home runs, which ranks eighth in all of baseball.
Twenty-one of Buxton's home runs have come against right-handers. He is 5-for-11 so far in July and has three hits in this series, but has yet to go deep. This is the matchup to back him to leave the yard.
If not off Williams, Buxton is set up well against this staff, as he has taken relievers Shawn Armstrong and Matt Festa deep before.
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Twins vs. Guardians Odds
Minnesota Twins | +110 ML |
Cleveland Guardians | -130 ML |
Run Line | CLE Guardians -1.5 |
Total | O/U 7.5 |
Twins vs. Guardians player props
Player Home Run Odds
Byron Buxton (MIN Twins) | +400 |
Kody Clemens (MIN Twins) | +425 |
Chase DeLauter (CLE Guardians) | +425 |
Kyle Manzardo (CLE Guardians) | +525 |
Jose Ramirez (CLE Guardians) | +525 |
Josh Bell (MIN Twins) | +575 |
Rhys Hoskins (CLE Guardians) | +575 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
