The Brewers have picked right back up where they left off against Cincinnati, taking the first two games of this four-game set at American Family Field and pushing their record against the Reds to 4-0 this season.
Milwaukee rolled to a 5-3 win on Monday before backing it up with a 7-2 victory last night, and now the two sides swing into tonight's matchup that looks considerably tighter on paper.
Both clubs are turning to left-handers, with Cincinnati's Andrew Abbott opposite Milwaukee's Shane Drohan, a rookie who has quietly turned himself into one of the most reliable arms in the Brewers' pitching mix.
Abbott, an All-Star for the Reds last season, still carries a respectable 3.90 ERA, but the underlying numbers tell a shakier story: his FIP sits over a run higher at 5.05, and his strikeout rate has dipped noticeably from a year ago.
Drohan, meanwhile, has been one of Milwaukee's steadiest surprises, sliding between long relief and spot starts and delivering a 3.12 ERA with 52 strikeouts across 52 innings. He already has a look at this Reds lineup in his back pocket, having thrown 4 1/3 scoreless innings against Cincinnati in his last turn through the rotation.
Milwaukee sits at 52-31, well clear atop the NL Central, while the Reds enter at 39-45 and are looking for any traction on this road trip.
First pitch at American Family Field is scheduled for 8:10 pm ET, so let's get into our Reds vs. Brewers picks.
Reds vs. Brewers betting picks and predictions
Brewers ML (-165)
Milwaukee has been the more complete team on both sides of the ball all season, and tonight's pitching matchup does little to change that.
Drohan has quietly turned into a trustworthy fifth or sixth starter, while Abbott's underlying numbers suggest his ERA has been propped up by sequencing that may not hold against a Brewers lineup that has come to the plate with runners in scoring position more often than any team in baseball this season.
The Reds have dropped all four meetings with Milwaukee this year and their offense has managed just 5 runs over the first two games in this series.
Cincinnati's bullpen has also been stretched thin, covering for a rotation that has needed length, and Milwaukee has been the best team in the league at pouncing on opponents once they get into a lead.
Laying -165 isn't cheap, but the gap between these two rosters is real and the Brewers should be considered the play.
William Contreras to Hit a Home Run (+450)
Contreras has been Milwaukee's most consistent offensive threat all season, hitting near the top of the batting average leaderboard while leading the Brewers in RBIs and hits.
As a right-handed hitter, he draws the platoon advantage against the left-handed Abbott, whose FIP-ERA split points to a pitcher who has been getting away with mistakes over the middle of the plate more often than his ERA suggests.
American Family Field plays reasonably well for pull-side right-handed power, and Contreras has shown he can turn on velocity as well as work the ball the other way, giving him multiple paths to clear the fence.
He's also seen success against Cincinnati pitching in previous meetings this season.
Given Abbott's contact-quality concerns and Contreras's all-fields power, +450 odds on the Brewers catcher to go deep looks like a fair number.
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Reds vs. Brewers odds
Cincinnati Reds | +140 ML |
Milwaukee Brewers | -165 ML |
Run Line | MIL Brewers -1.5 |
Total | O/U 9.0 |
Reds vs. Brewers player props
Player home run odds
Jackson Chourio (MIL Brewers) | +360 |
Sal Stewart (CIN Reds) | +370 |
Gary Sanchez (MIL Brewers) | +370 |
Elly De La Cruz (CIN Reds) | +420 |
William Contreras (MIL Brewers) | +440 |
Eugenio Suarez (CIN Reds) | +450 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
