Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays continue their four-game series Tuesday night after Toronto escaped with a 2-1 victory in Monday's opener.
Boston has now dropped three straight after ripping off a nine-game winning streak that capped a remarkable stretch of 27 victories in 30 games.
Toronto, meanwhile, has controlled the season series, winning seven of the first 10 meetings and sends ace Dylan Cease to the mound after he has dominated Boston twice already this season.
That makes the Blue Jays the obvious side, but we're looking to zag.
The best betting value does not always sit with the cleaner matchup on paper and there are reasons to believe Boston can make life much more difficult on Cease this time around.
We're also attacking a low total and buying into positive regression for one of Toronto's biggest stars.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays betting picks and predictions
Red Sox Money Line (+125)
There is no pretending Boston has the starting-pitching advantage here.
Cease owns a 2.28 ERA with 184 strikeouts and has been sensational against the Red Sox recently. In his last two starts against Boston, both at Fenway Park, he combined for 14 scoreless innings with 19 strikeouts.
Current Red Sox hitters are batting just .208 with a .638 OPS against him across 92 career at-bats. That is exactly why Boston is offering plus money.
Cease has been excellent everywhere, but he has been noticeably more vulnerable at home, posting a 2.86 ERA compared to a ridiculous 1.71 mark on the road.
His first home start against Boston this season also looked much different from the two Fenway outings, as the Red Sox tagged him for four runs over 5.1 innings.
Boston should also receive an immediate lineup boost with Adley Rutschman expected to make his Red Sox debut after being lifted from the IL, following a blockbuster deadline deal.
Rutschman has seen Cease well, going 2-for-6 with four walks in their previous meetings, and could provide exactly the type of jolt Boston needs after a frustrating opener.
Patrick Sandoval is unquestionably the risk. The Red Sox have won all five of his starts since he returned from a year-and-a-half absence, but his 3.38 ERA has come with plenty of traffic. Sandoval has allowed 30 hits and 10 walks in only 24 innings.
Still, Toronto has hardly punished him historically, batting .255 with only a .608 OPS in 55 career at-bats.
The larger offensive trends also favor Boston. The Red Sox rank third in MLB in OPS since the All-Star break, while Toronto ranks 28th.
Boston also owns the 11th-best road OPS, while the Blue Jays sit 25th at home and rank dead last in baseball in OPS against left-handed pitching.
Add baseball's best bullpen by ERA at 2.91, and Boston has a legitimate path to stealing this game once the starters exit. We'll take the value and trust the deeper offense and bullpen to snap the skid.
Over 7.5 total runs (+105)
The pitching matchup points casual bettors toward the Under. Again, we're going the other way.
Sandoval's surface ERA looks respectable, but allowing 40 baserunners between hits and walks in 24 innings is not a sustainable formula.
His three home runs allowed are manageable, but Toronto should have multiple opportunities to cash in with runners aboard.
Boston, meanwhile, has been one of baseball's hottest second-half offenses and has repeatedly responded well when challenged over the past month.
Cease has dominated this lineup twice in a row, but asking him to completely smother the Red Sox for a third straight meeting feels ambitious, particularly at home, where he has been less dominant.
The bullpen dynamics help as well. Louis Varland worked through a stressful ninth inning Monday to earn his 25th save, while Boston has the fresher and more reliable relief unit.
This does not need to become a slugfest. A 5-4 or 5-3 game gets us there. At plus money on a total of only 7.5, the Over is worth the zag.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit a home run (+525)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. helped carry the Blue Jays to the World Series last season, but enters Tuesday hitting just .261 with seven home runs and a .696 OPS.
Those numbers are almost impossible to reconcile with his track record. There are at least signs that the bat is beginning to wake up.
Guerrero collected two hits, including a home run, Saturday, doubled Sunday and added another hit in Monday's series opener.
He also owns Toronto's best OPS against left-handed pitching at .789 and is 3-for-6 lifetime against Sandoval.
This is another spot where we're buying regression.
Sandoval has survived plenty of baserunners without his ERA exploding, while Guerrero has generated far less power than anyone would expect from a hitter of his caliber.
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Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds
Boston Red Sox | +125 ML |
Toronto Blue Jays | -150 ML |
Run Line | TOR Blue Jays -1.5 |
Total | O/U 7.5 |
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays player props
Player home run odds
Wilyer Abreu (BOS Red Sox) | +475 |
Wilson Contreras (BOS Red Sox) | +500 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR Blue Jays) | +525 |
George Springer (TOR Blue Jays) | +525 |
Alejandro Kirk (TOR Blue Jays) | +600 |
Adley Rutschman (BOS Red Sox) | +650 |
Jarren Duran (BOS Red Sox) | +700 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
