Who Can Win the 2026 World Cup?

Charlie Zschau Updated: Jun 17 2026 16:24

The 2026 World Cup has begun, let's look at which teams have the best odds of winning it all.

The Favorites

France (+400) have overtaken Spain (+550) as the outright favorites to win the 2026 World Cup. France put on an amazing performance against Senegal in their first game of the World Cup, winning 3-1.

Didier Deschampes has the attacking depth of Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Desire Doue, Rayan Cherki and more to pick from up in his front three, making up one of the most threating forward lines in the sport.

France have reached two consecutive World Cup Finals, and it would be no surprise to see them there again in 2026.

Spain has slipped to second place after drawing Cape Verde in their first match. Spain could not get past 40-year-old goalkeeper, Vozinha. who made an impressive eight saves against the 2024 European Champions.

Spain still has incredible talent in all areas of the pitch. 18-year-old Lamine Yamal can carve up defenses on the right wing, while Nico Williams can do the same on the left. Mikel Merino, Pedri, Rodri and Martin Zubimendi make up Spain's composed midfield, something required to make a deep run in any tournament.

England (+700) has the third shortest odds to lift the World Cup trophy next July, and Thomas Tuchel will have to become the first foreign manager to win a World Cup. England has endless options all over the pitch, but choosing the right lineups game to game will be key for the German manager.

Harry Kane is always reliable up front, but who players up around him will dictate how far England can go in the tournament.

Contenders

Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal team are +750 in what could be CR7's last major tournament. At 41-years-old, Ronaldo still possess a keen eye for goal, and has brought his career tally to over 950 goals for club and country.

Ronaldo could get himself back in the 'GOAT' debate if he is able to match Messi's World Cup victory, and he could do so thanks to having the best Midfield in the World behind him. Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, and Joao Neves' quality to dictate games will be on full display in North America this summer.

2022 World Cup Champions Argentina (+800) and Brazil (+1000) are major contenders. Each team boasts incredibly quality and pace, but for Argentina, many of their star players are aging out of their prime.

Lionel Messi will be his inevitable self this summer, but no nation has managed to win back-to-back World Cups since Brazil did so in 1958 and 1962.

Brazil drew with a very competitive Morocco team 1-1 in their first match. Carlo Ancelotti's team features the bruising Gabriel and Marquinhos in the center of defense, and tricky wingers Vinicius Junior and Raphinha on the wings. World Cup Champions are often crowned through moments of brilliance, and Brazil has the roster to do just that.

In the Hunt

Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Morocco, Belgium and Colombia all have a fighters chance, but winning the World Cup is no easy feat.

After winning the World Cup in 2014, Germany (+1400) have been eliminated in the group stage of the past two tournaments. Julian Nagelsmann will look to get his squad back on track this year, and reaching at least the quarterfinal is a must to reestablish the German's as global powerhouse.

Germany dismantled Curacao 7-1 in the opening match, but it's hard to tell if Germany is legit or just got lucky with a weaker opponent in the first game.

The Netherlands (+2000) can be frisky on the global stage, and with Virgil Van Dijk's defensive quality they compete with anyone. The Dutch have not had the attacking depth to make a serious push for the final since 2014, when Robin Van Persie and Arjen Robben were leading the line, and on paper they don't have that depth again this season.

Martin Odegaard and Erling Haaland do possess the playmaking an goalscoring that every team needs at the World Cup, but the lack of world class players around them make it hard to foresee Norway (+2500) lifting the trophy.

Morocco became the first African nation to reach a World Cup semifinal in 2022, and could build on that magical run again in 2026. With Brahim Diaz coming off an AFCON Golden Boot winning performance and Achraf Hakimi being a crucial part of PSG's UEFA Champions League winning side, Morocco have a roster that is ready for the moment.

The Atlas Lions showed why they are in the hunt with a 1-1 draw in the opening match against Brazil.

Belgium's 'Golden Generation' is aging out their prime, but Jeremy Doku and the new generation could help carry Kevin De Bruyne, Thibault Courtois and Romelu Lukaku to the nations' first final if the matchups break their way.

Belgium have heard lots of hype in the past few tournaments, but have fizzled out early than expected. They drew Egypt in their first game, showing signs that it might be the same story in 2026.

Cinderella Stories

The United States (+4000) and Mexico (+5000) are dark horse candidates on home soil, and have historically progressed deep into the tournaments when they play host. The last two times Mexico hosted the World cup they achieved their highest ever finish, reaching the quarterfinals on both occasions (1970, 1986).

The United States has not reached the quarterfinals since 2002, and had only reached that stage once before when they finished third in the inaugural World Cup tournament in 1930. The Stars and Stripes will have the crowd behind them in 2026, but they'll need to get consistent production from Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun to make some major noise.

Both teams won in dominant fashion in their opening matches of the tournament.

Japan (+5000) and Senegal (+12500) are two other teams to keep an eye on this summer. Japan drew the Netherlands 2-2 in Group F, and looked tactically sound even without star players Kaoru Mitoma and Wataru Endo

Senegal fell to France in their first game, but still showed lots of promise on both ends of the pitch. The score could have been flipped if the ball bounced slightly differently in that match. They also have lots of veteran leaders in the roster than is needed for a deep tournament run.

Croatia (+8000) has finished inside top-three in each of the last two tournaments, and the squad's veteran leadership from Luka Modric could propel them to another Cinderella story finish in 2026.