The final major of the year is upon us as the world’s best head to Royal Birkdale for the Open Championship.
Scottie Scheffler heads to Merseyside to defend his crown, but does so on the back of a first missed cut in nearly four years, prompting more questions about the state of his game.
A unique test, there is a randomness to links golf, especially at The Open. On any given day you can find yourself on the wrong side of the weather and be two shots worse off than the other half of the field.
You can hit an excellent drive that just happens to roll into a pot bunker placed in the fairway and essentially take a one-stroke penalty, and the margins between success and failure can be razor-thin.
That said, The Open winners have typically been high-calibre over the last decade or so. By the Data Golf rankings, eight of the last 12 winners have ranked in the top 10, and you have to go all the way back to Darren Clarke (212th) in 2011 for someone ranked outside the top 35.
Measuring a slightly extended 7,200 yards, Birkdale isn’t the longest venue and it can’t be overpowered, with accuracy needed off the tee.
There’s an argument to be made the strong winds make driving accuracy less important: if everyone’s in the rough, it helps to be as near the hole as possible. Wind however looks calm this week, and the more accurate hitters might be at an advantage, able to better control their approach shots.
5 - Wyndham Clark
Wyndham Clark’s remarkable run of form shows no sign of relenting.
The two-time US Open winner found himself in contention again on Sunday before finally running out of steam in a marathon day.
Clark’s recent form reads 1-3-T11-1-T5-T13. His win at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson was followed by a week of outstanding iron play at the Memorial the week after, later going on to win the US Open in bizarrely hostile circumstances.
A dip in the aftermath seemed inevitable, but Clark was T5 at the Travelers. The asterisk there was that he lost strokes off the tee and on approach in doing so, suggesting his form might be about to dip, but he gained strokes in all four categories again at the Scottish Open.
Clark’s packed schedule and his occasional waywardness off the tee might be what holds him back this week, but after a career-best T4 at Portrush last year, he’ll be feeling extremely confident of more major success.
4 - Tommy Fleetwood
Every year we reach The Open and ask the same question: is this Tommy Fleetwood’s time?
If he’s going to win any major, this one seems the most likely given his excellent wind play and short game.
The good news for Fleetwood is his game is just starting to turn a corner after a very up-and-down start to the season. In his first seven events, Fleetwood recorded four top-10s, but finished outside the top 30 in the other three. Since then, Fleetwood has been T23, T5, MC, T4, T11, T14, T13.
His game isn’t quite in a place where he’s contending for tournaments, but he’s playing well enough to be recording solid finishes.
Returning to his favourite part of the world, the home favourite will be a very popular pick this week.
3 - Matt Fitzpatrick
What an incredible year it’s been for Matt Fitzpatrick. It was about this time last year that his form went from ‘turning around’ to ‘taking off’. Fitzpatrick was T17 at the Travelers and T8 at the Rocket Classic before crossing the pond to record back-to-back T4s at the Scottish Open and The Open.
Fitzpatrick would then make the Ryder Cup team, and somehow he’s got even better from there.
The Yorkshireman has won three PGA Tour events this season, has two runner-up finishes and now back-to-back top-fives at the Travelers and Scottish Open.
Fitzpatrick comes into this Open Championship on the back of his best finish at the major – his T4 at Portrush – and Birkdale should suit his game down to the ground.
Fitzpatrick is rarely outstanding, but is consistently excellent, making so few mistakes that it’s hard to see him not being there or thereabouts over the weekend.
2 - Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy is now putting all his efforts into winning majors. He’s playing a lighter schedule than ever as he wants to strike a better work-life balance.
The result of McIlroy playing a lighter schedule means that in theory he’s turning up to majors better prepared. The 2014 Open champion has already spent time at Royal Birkdale and even played in Cornwall to acclimatise to the coastal conditions.
McIlroy’s played really good golf this season, but there are a couple of concerns heading to the 2026 Open. Firstly, Birkdale tends to require accurate driving, which doesn’t play to McIlroy’s strengths. He’ll likely lay back off the tee on a lot of holes, but when he does pull driver, it’s hard to bank on him keeping out of the unplayable fescue rough.
The other concern is that the Northern Irishman has had a habit of throwing in stinkers to jeopardise his tournament hopes. His third round at the Masters let everyone back into the tournament, his third round at the Truist took him out of contention, his first round at the PGA killed his chances before the tournament had got going. Even at the Scottish Open, McIlroy led heading into round three before plummeting down the leaderboard.
At his best, McIlroy is perhaps the favourite to win this week. The question is whether he can put four rounds together.
1 - Scottie Scheffler
By anyone else’s standards, Scottie Scheffler’s performances of late have been excellent. By his own standards… well he still can’t win, and worse still he’s thrown a missed cut into the mix.
Three years ago, everyone asked the same question: what if Scottie Scheffler could putt? He then answered that question the following year with four PGA Tour wins, another Players Championship, the Tour Championship, an Olympic gold medal and another Green Jacket.
The year after, Scheffler became an elite putter and won two more majors.
His putting and short game are still elite, but his approach play is undeniably worse. Laser accurate for so long, Scheffler was 12th, 2nd and 1st for proximity to the hole in the last three years, but is down to 94th this.
The missed cut at the Renaissance Club was a shock to the system, but Birkdale ought to suit the straight-driving Scheffler more. He also thrives on links courses, and is one of only two players tow have played The Open more than once and boast a sub-70 scoring average, as per Golf Betting System.
He still ranks highly for Strokes Gained: Approach as he keeps finding greens; he’s just not getting near enough to the hole to take advantage.
Scheffler is the best player in the world and no one would be surprised to see him lift the Claret Jug for the second time, but he seems less likely to win this major than he has any other in the last few years.
