The Phoenix Mercury arrive at Target Center carrying the weight of one of the most demoralizing defeats in WNBA history.
Saturday's 106-58 loss to the Las Vegas Aces was a humbling result made even harder to process given that Phoenix had beaten those same Aces by 30 points on the same floor earlier this season.
The Mercury have now lost three straight, averaging just 71 points per game during that skid.
Minnesota, meanwhile, is rolling. The Lynx are tied with Las Vegas for the best record in the WNBA at 17-6 and enter Monday off a gutsy 90-85 home win over the New York Liberty, when Kayla McBride scored 25 points and drained five three-pointers while Olivia Miles returned from a brief absence to add 23 points.
Minnesota has already beaten Phoenix twice this season, both times on the road and now the Lynx get to face a reeling Mercury squad at home.
Tip-off at Target Center is at 9:00 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Mercury vs. Lynx betting picks and predictions
Minnesota Lynx -13.5 (-110)
The case for Minnesota goes beyond the talent gap, which is already significant.
The Lynx own the No. 2 defensive rating in the WNBA this season, limiting opponents to just 31.4% shooting from three-point range (2nd-best in the WNBA).
That is a direct problem for a Phoenix team that is struggling from distance, with Kahleah Copper shooting a dismal 27.6% from beyond the arc on the season.
When Minnesota can funnel everything toward the paint and dare Phoenix to beat them from the perimeter, the Mercury have very few answers.
Minnesota has been the most reliable spread team in the WNBA all season. The Lynx are 16-7 against the spread, and they are 11-5 against the spread at home.
Natasha Howard is shooting 59.0% from the field this season, and Olivia Miles is averaging 18.7 points, 5.6 assists, and 4.9 rebounds per game, giving Minnesota a balanced and deep attack that Phoenix's porous defense cannot contain.
After Saturday's blowout, Phoenix will come out with urgency, but urgency and execution are different things, and this Mercury roster has demonstrated repeatedly that it struggles to produce against top defenses.
Minnesota has already won both regular-season meetings, both away from home.
Back the Lynx to win comfortably and cover a double-digit spread on their own floor.
Olivia Miles Over 19.5 Points (-110)
Miles returned from a brief absence on Sunday and delivered 23 points against one of the better defenses in the Eastern Conference, the New York Liberty.
That outing reinforced what her season averages already suggested: the No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 WNBA Draft has taken to the professional game with a speed that few rookies match.
Phoenix's defense ranks among the worst in the league and has been particularly vulnerable to penetrating guards who can get into the lane and either finish or create.
Miles, whose 49.8% field goal percentage reflects excellent shot selection for a first-year player, should find consistent openings off Courtney Williams's gravity on the perimeter.
Williams herself averages 15.8 points per game and shoots 41.0% from three, drawing attention that opens driving lanes for Miles throughout the night.
Under 169.5 Total Points (-110)
The Lynx's No. 1 defensive rating does not just show up in blowout wins; it grinds down opposing offenses over 40 minutes, and Phoenix is coming in with the No. 12 offensive rating in the WNBA after three consecutive ugly performances.
The Mercury averaged just 71 points over their current losing streak. Even with the motivation of responding to Saturday's historic humiliation, their offensive mechanics have broken down in a way that does not fix itself overnight.
Without Natasha Mack in the interior to secure offensive rebounds, Phoenix has no reliable second-chance points to supplement an already labored half-court attack.
Minnesota controls the pace, limits transition opportunities, and makes teams beat them with disciplined half-court sets but Phoenix has not been able to do that against anyone lately.
The Under has cashed in nine of the Mercury's last 11 road games and in four of their last five games overall.
Back another low-scoring game in Minnesota.
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Mercury vs. Lynx WNBA odds
Phoenix Mercury | +550 |
Minnesota Lynx | -800 |
Spread | MIN Lynx -13.5 |
Total Points | O/U 169.5 |
Mercury vs. Lynx player props
Player Points
Kahleah Copper (PHX Mercury) | O/U 19.5 |
Olivia Miles (MIN Lynx) | O/U 19.5 |
Kayla McBride (MIN Lynx) | O/U 16.5 |
Natasha Howard (MIN Lynx) | O/U 16.5 |
Courtney Williams (MIN Lynx) | O/U 16.5 |
Alyssa Thomas (PHX Mercury) | O/U 13.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
