A'ja Wilson wasted no time reminding the league what it looks like at full strength. In her return from a three-game absence due to a right ankle injury, the four-time MVP posted 32 points and 10 rebounds as the Las Vegas Aces pulled away for an 88-80 road win over the Portland Fire on Thursday.
Now, fresh off that emphatic comeback, the Aces return home tonight to face the Phoenix Mercury in the third meeting between these teams this season.
The series has produced a fascinating subplot: the road team has won both encounters so far. Phoenix stunned Las Vegas 99-66 on May 9 in what remains the Mercury's most dominant win of the year, before the Aces returned the favor with an 86-76 victory at Phoenix on June 17 to clinch a spot in the Commissioner's Cup championship.
This time, with Wilson healthy and the Aces playing on their home floor, the dynamic should shift.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces betting picks and predictions
Las Vegas Aces -9.5 (-120)
Wilson's return changes the calculus on this game entirely. The Aces had dropped games to Indiana and lost their footing during the three-game stretch without her.
Still, Thursday's performance in Portland offered no sign that she is carrying any hesitation from the ankle. Her own words after the game made it clear she was ready to go even before the medical staff cleared her.
Phoenix heads into Saturday at 8-15, shorthanded with Monique Akoa Makani ruled out, and Sami Whitcomb listed as questionable. The Mercury are 11th in both offensive and defensive rating in the WNBA this season, and they have been a historically difficult cover as favorites or near-favorites, going a league-worst 5-10 against the spread earlier in the season. Las Vegas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Phoenix.
Home court matters for the Aces, too. Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young give Las Vegas a playmaking and scoring core that Phoenix has no answer for at full strength, nevermind with key absentees. Back the Aces to win and cover comfortably at home.
A'ja Wilson over 24.5 points (-120)
Wilson averages 26.1 points per game on the season, and Thursday's 32-point outing in her first game back from injury suggests she is not just healthy but primed.
Against Phoenix specifically, she has been nothing short of dominant. In the regular season last year, she averaged 25.0 points and 15.7 rebounds in three meetings against the Mercury, and in the June 17 contest this season, she delivered 33 points and 11 rebounds to clinch the Commissioner's Cup berth.
Phoenix will have no one capable of matching up with Wilson in the post, and with Whitcomb possibly unavailable, the Mercury's perimeter depth is thin enough that Wilson's interior work should go largely uncontested.
She is the single most reliable scorer in the sport when motivated and healthy, and this game checks both boxes. Back her to clear 24.5 points.
Kahleah Copper over 24.5 points + rebounds (-110)
Kahleah Copper has been Phoenix's engine offensively since her breakout 41-point performance against Los Angeles on June 13, and she shows no signs of cooling off.
She has cleared 24.5 combined points and rebounds in seven of her last nine games, including each of her last five. Against the Aces on June 17, she put up 26 points and four rebounds, clearing this market with her scoring total alone.
Copper leads the Mercury at 20.8 points per game and contributes 1.8 three-pointers per contest, both team highs.
Even in a game where Las Vegas controls the overall flow, Copper has demonstrated she can produce. She is Phoenix's primary scoring option and will need to be aggressive from the opening tip if the Mercury have any hope of keeping this competitive. Take her to clear her combined points-and-rebounds line.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces odds
Phoenix Mercury | +375 |
Las Vegas Aces | -588 |
Spread | LV Aces -9.5 |
Total Points | O/U 169.5 |
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces player props
Player Points
A'ja Wilson (LV Aces) | O/U 24.5 |
Kahleah Copper (PHX Mercury) | O/U 20.5 |
Jackie Young (LV Aces) | O/U 17.5 |
Alyssa Thomas (PHX Mercury) | O/U 14.5 |
Chelsea Gray (LV Aces) | O/U 12.5 |
NaLyssa Smith (LV Aces) | O/U 11.5 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
