2026 US Major Open First-Round Leader Predictions & Best Bets

The 2026 US Major Open gets underway at Shinnecock Hills, Long Island, on Thursday and, with the forecast brutal winds that will nearly reach hurricane levels, it could be carnage.

The New York layout is one of the most unforgiving venues in championship golf, so the opening round is shaping up to be a survival test rather than a birdie fest.

However, three players stand out as strong value bets to lead after the first 18 holes - Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton and Chris Gotterup.

All three combine elite wind play, recent fast‑start form, and course‑fit traits that make them dangerous in brutal opening‑round conditions.

US Major Open first-round betting picks & predictions 

Tyrell Hatton (+4500)

Tyrrell Hatton is one of the best wind players in the world, and his recent form suggests he could be primed for a fast start from a potentially favorable morning tee time.

The Englishman ranks seventh in first‑round strokes gained over the last six months and has been consistently sharp from the opening tee shot.

His 2026 season has been defined by big‑event performances like his tied-third finish at the Masters and his win at LIV Andalucia.

Let’s not forget his tied-fourth US Open finish at Oakmont last year and his share of sixth place the last time it was played at Shinnecock in 2018.

Those results prove he can handle this exact test and his confidence is sky‑high after becoming a father for the first time.

Those experiencing “Nappy Factor” should be used to early starts, and Hatton’s 07:41 first-round tee time should ensure he gets a decent opportunity to make some birdies before the wind becomes too much of a problem. 

The 34-year-old has shot in the 60s in all eight of his first rounds on LIV this season and can defy the conditions to go low again on Thursday. 

Chris Gotterup (+4500)

Chris Gotterup’s first‑round scoring record and wind‑play pedigree make him a dangerous contender for the US Open at Shinnecock.

The American has an aggressive style, using a high‑speed driver that can penetrate strong breezes with a stinger shot.

His fearless iron play has seen him establish himself as one of the fastest starters on the PGA Tour this season, ranking inside the top 10 in opening‑round scoring average. 

And he produced a magnificent round of 65 in the worst of the conditions on the Friday of the US PGA Championship last month.

He loves links courses, having won the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open when wind played a role as gusts occasionally picked up into the mid-20 mph range.

He then finished third in the Open at Royal Portrush when the wind blew a little bit harder.  

The 26-year-old was raised in New Jersey and went to college there, so should have plenty of support in the galleries this week.

Gotterup’s 07:30 Thursday tee time sits in a potentially favorable early window, giving him a chance to post a number before the wind becomes unplayable.

Six of the last 10 US Open first‑round leaders have been out early and Thursday’s forecast is for late morning 27mph winds and gusts of up to 46mph.

Gotterup is the kind of volatile, high‑ceiling player who can absolutely catch fire for 18 holes.

Shane Lowry  (+6000)

Who can forget Shane Lowry’s Open victory in the wind and rain at Royal Portrush in 2019 when none of the final 24 players on the course broke par.

If the wind is howling this week - and it will be - Lowry becomes one of the most appealing first-round leader plays in the field.

Few players relish that type of hurley-burly like the Irishman, and his recent first‑round form has been exceptional.

Across his last three starts, Lowry has opened 7‑8‑8, including strong starts at both 2026 Majors. He was also first‑round leader in back‑to‑back events late last year, firing 64s in India and Abu Dhabi.

His 13:47 tee time puts him in the teeth of the wind, but that may actually increase his edge. When conditions get ugly, Lowry gets better.

US Open first-round leader odds

Scottie Scheffler	+1600
Rory McIlroy	+2200
Jon Rahm	+2200
Tommy Fleetwood	+2800
Matt Fitzpatrick	+2800
Xander Schauffele	+3000
Ludvig Aberg	+3300
Cameron Young	+3500
Bryson Dechambeau	+4000
Russell Henley	+4000

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.