Every year, several MLB players either surpass or fall short of their pre-season expectations.
Tools such as Baseball Savant, Fangraphs, and more provide fans and teams with information and context surrounding their players' performances. Depending on the size of the sample, they can help figure out whether or not a certain player's success was a fluke or if a player's failure was just bad luck.
In 2025, Cal Raleigh turned from a star into an MVP candidate, Pete Crow-Armstrong established himself as a serious hitter to go along with his supreme speed and fielding skills, and Junior Caminero and Nick Kurtz came out of nowhere to light up the league in their rookie seasons.
Let's try to find some guys that fit the mold of the breakout seasons that Raleigh, PCA, Caminero, Kurtz, and more had, this time for the 2026 season.
MLB Breakout Candidates for 2026
Star turned to MVP Candidate - James Wood (WSH Nationals)
The consensus choice for this category seems to be the Cincinnati Reds' Elly De La Cruz, though the Washington Nationals' James Wood will be the pick here.
Wood had a very good season last year - he hit 31 home runs last year, made the All-Star game, and finished with a 127 wRC+, though he could've been even better. His numbers dropped significantly in the back-half of the season.
In 420 plate appearances before the All-Star break, Wood hit 24 home runs and owned an OPS of .915. In 269 plate appearances after the break, his OPS dropped all the way down to .689 and he only hit seven homers.
While the back-half numbers are concerning, I'll choose to weigh the larger, pre All-Star break, sample more than the smaller, post All-Star break numbers.
When looking at his metrics on Baseball Savant, he certainly has the potential to become an MVP candidate. His average exit velocity, barrel %, hard-hit %, and bat speed are all in the 94th percentile or better compared to every other big leaguer.
His xwOBA, xSLG, and walk rate are all in the 87th percentile or better. It's rare to see someone square up the ball so often while also walking a bunch.
He has one area of his game that he needs to improve, and if it happens, he'll be unstoppable. His whiff rate and strikeout rate are a major issue - he finished in just the 5th percentile in whiff rate and 2nd percentile in strikeouts.
The K rate is interesting when taking into account his chase rate is in the 74th percentile. He has a huge hole in his bat in the strike-zone. He can identify balls and strikes with the best of them, it's just a matter of putting the bat on the ball.
The uber-talented Wood can hit against both left-handed and right-handed pitching, and I'll trust that he figures out his one weakness on the offensive end.
Terrific Fielder/Bad Hitter to Good Hitter - Michael Harris II (ATL Braves)
Michael Harris II started his career with a bang - he won the National League Rookie of the Year award as a 21-year-old in 2022 after hitting 19 bombs with a .853 OPS and 137 wRC+.
Since then, his career has gone downhill in every year. He had a 116 wRC+ in 2023, posted a 99 number in 2024, and finished with an 83 wRC+ last year.
The continued fall-off doesn't seem like it would spark much hope for a bounce back season, until you look at his numbers after the All-Star break.
Before the break, Harris might have been the MLB's worst hitter. He was ranked dead last with a .551 OPS prior to the Midsummer Classic.
After changing his swing during the season, his numbers took a massive jump. In 273 plate appearances after the break, he had a .845 OPS and hit 14 bombs. There was even a month long stretch from the middle of July to the middle of August where his OPS was 1.139, and he finished the season strong, posting an OPS near 1.000 over his last 15 games.
Despite his overall bad season in which he had a .249 batting average, he still finished in the 78th percentile in xBA (.249). His max EV of 114.1 (90th percentile) demonstrates that his bat can be elite if he squares up the ball.
His 1st percentile walk rate is miserable and that may never improve much, but he has a talented enough bat to get back into the 30-home run, near .800 OPS range. Combine that with his top-tier fielding and baserunning, and Harris could be a very valuable piece for a Braves team also looking to bounce back.
Rookie Superstar - Carter Jensen (KC Royals)
Jensen played in just 20 games last year and finished with 69 at-bats, but he performed at an extremely high level.
The Royals' No. 1 prospect is a hot-pick for Rookie of the Year, and rightfully so. He currently has the fourth-best odds to win ROY at +750, behind Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto, and Trey Yesavage.
He had a .941 OPS and hit three homers in those 20 games. Perhaps more impressively, he only struck out 12 times and walked nine times.
With such a small sample size, he didn't qualify to be included in the percentiles for his metric stats, but if he did qualify, those same numbers (.447 xwOBA, 95.4 average EV, 20.8% barrel, .633 xSLG, and .336 xBA) would all finish in the top 98%.
He hits the ball extremely hard, doesn't strikeout much, and walks a lot. The only thing to be concerned about regarding last year is the tiny sample.
He hit two doubles at Kauffman Stadium that will be home runs next year when the walls move in. His consistent ability to pull the ball with power could lead to an extraordinary rookie season on offense.
Complete Dark Horse Veteran - Luis Torrens (NY Mets)
Eugenio Suarez's career was descending after failing to clear a .800 OPS and striking out at a historic level from 2020-2024 until he had one of his career years in 2025 when he hit 49 home runs and posted a .824 OPS.
On a much, much smaller scale, Torrens could also have a breakout campaign late in his career.
A backup catcher that had a .629 OPS and only hit five home runs is a wild pick that could backfire quickly, but he was seriously unlucky last year. His xBA was .274 (near the 80th percentile), but he actually finished with a .226 average. His xSLG (.454) was more than a hundred points better than his actual slugging (.345).r
His K rate, chase rate, and whiff rate were all in the top-half of the league. He hit the ball over 95 mph in 48.1% of his batted balls in play. If he played all his games at a more hitter-friendly ballpark like Coors Field, he would've finished with at least 12 homers.
He's a top defensive catcher (100th percentile in CS Above Average, 82nd percentile in framing, 97th in pop time), and if his BABIP is luckier moving forward, the Mets will have a serious catching duo between Francisco Alvarez and Torrens.
