Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays open the American League Championship Series on Monday night under very different circumstances.
The Guardians just completed a dramatic comeback against the Chicago White Sox in the ALDS, coming from 2-0 down to win 3-2 to extend their postseason.
As for Tampa, they swept the New York Yankees and enter Game 1 of this series rested, confident and with rotation perfectly aligned.
The pitching matchup features Rays ace Drew Rasmussen against Cleveland trade deadline acquisition, Foster Griffin.
Tampa Bay dominated the regular-season series, winning five of six meetings and outscoring Cleveland 20-8.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays betting picks and predictions
Rays -1.5 (+136)
Griffin is getting the ball for Cleveland after working 2.2 innings in relief during the Division Series. He struggled after arriving in Cleveland at the trade deadline, posting a 5.19 ERA over nine starts.
Right-handed hitters batted .265 with a .733 OPS against him, which is particularly concerning against a Tampa Bay lineup built around Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero.
The Rays were only 25th in OPS against left-handed pitching during the regular season, but that weakness did not stop them from getting to Max Fried for four runs and two home runs in their clinching win against New York.
They were also much better offensively at Tropicana Field, hitting .262 with a .748 OPS at home.
On the other side, Rasmussen is coming off one of the best starts of the postseason.
He threw eight scoreless innings against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS, allowing only one hit. During the regular season, he posted a 2.87 ERA at home.
Current Guardians hitters are just 12-for-72 lifetime against Rasmussen with two doubles, no home runs and 18 strikeouts against four walks. Jose Ramirez, who carried Cleveland late in the ALDS, is only 1-for-12 against him.
The Guardians also ranked 26th in road OPS this season. Cleveland’s pitching staff had to expend plenty of energy simply to survive the Division Series. Tampa Bay did not.
That should become important once the game moves into the middle innings.
Under 6.5 Total Runs (+100)
Four of the five Rays regular season victories over the Guardians featured three runs or fewer from Tampa Bay. Cleveland scored only eight total runs across the six meetings.
Tampa Bay’s pitching profile also happens to attack one of the Guardians’ biggest offensive weaknesses.
The Rays threw changeups more frequently than any team in baseball this season, using the pitch 21.3% of the time. Cleveland ranked 28th in batting value against changeups and finished at minus-20.5 runs against the pitch overall.
Rasmussen also does not offer an obvious platoon advantage. He has handled both left-handed and right-handed hitters well, and Cleveland’s lack of power makes it difficult to manufacture runs quickly against him.
The Guardians were 27th in MLB with 162 home runs this year, while Tampa Bay was only slightly better.
This is not a matchup either offense is expected to consistently string together extra-base hits.
The risk to the Under comes from Griffin. Tampa Bay is rested, has seen quality left-handed pitching recently and could do damage if Griffin struggles early.
Still, Rasmussen is expected to dominate Cleveland, meaning the Rays can do most of the scoring, and this game can stay below the number.
Junior Caminero To Hit a Home Run (+475)
Caminero crushed left-handed pitching this season, batting .287 with a .916 OPS against southpaws. He was even better at home, hitting .282 with a .934 OPS.
Caminero hit 42 home runs during the regular season and now faces a left-hander who allowed right-handed hitters to produce a .733 OPS after joining Cleveland.
He was productive without breaking through for a home run against New York, going 3-for-10 with a double and two walks in the ALDS.
Cleveland will obviously build its pitching plan around keeping Caminero from beating it, but the Guardians do not enter this game with a fresh staff. Their top relievers were worked hard during a five-game Division Series, while Tampa Bay has had time to reset.
Even if Griffin avoids Caminero the first time through, there should be opportunities against a tired bullpen later.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays Odds
Cleveland Guardians | +139 ML |
Tampa Bay Rays | -164 ML |
Run Line | Rays -1.5 |
Total | O/U 6.5 |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays player props
Player Home Run Odds
Junior Caminero (TB Rays) | +475 |
Victor Mesa Jr. (TB Rays) | +550 |
Jonathan Aranda (TB Rays) | +625 |
Jose Ramirez (CLE Guardians) | +700 |
Jo Adell (CLE Guardians) | +750 |
Travis Bazzana (CLE Guardians) | +750 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
