US Open First-Round Leader Prediction and Tips

The third Major of the season, the US Open, takes place at Shinnecock Hills GC this week and there is a stellar 156-player field ready to do battle.

World number one Scottie Scheffler arrives with a chance to complete the Career Grand Slam and he is the 6/1 favourite to claim the spoils.

Shinnecock is one of the toughest US Open venues on the rota, signified by Brook Koepka’s one-over par winning score when this event was last staged at the New York venue in 2018.

US Open First-Round Leader Tips Summary

Best Bet - Xander Schauffele each-way @ 25/1
Alternative Bet - Patrick Reed each-way @ 40/1
Alternative Bet - J.J. Spaun each-way @ 45/1

US Open First-Round Leader Prediction

Best Bet: Xander Schauffele each-way @ 25/1

Xander Schauffele has been ticking over nicely in the Majors since winning two back in 2024 - the PGA Championship and the Open Championship.

Last year, he sealed top-10 finishes at the Masters and the Open, while he has finished in the top-10 in both Majors so far in 2026.

He has yet to win the US Open, yet Schauffele has typically enjoyed fast starts to the tournament. After shooting an opening round 62 at Los Angeles Country Club in 2023, he led the pack after 18 holes.

At this Major, Schauffele has found himself in the top-10 after round one five times between 2017 and 2024. When Shinnecock last held the US Open, the American was 13th after the opening 18 holes.

Alternative Bet: Patrick Reed each-way @ 40/1

Patrick Reed has performed well in the Majors so far this year, finishing tied-12th at Augusta National in April before securing a top-10 at last month’s PGA Championship.

The American was third and tied-eighth after the opening rounds of those two Majors, suggesting he enjoys a fast start in the biggest tournaments.

Reed ended up fourth at Shinnecock in 2018, just three shots behind Koepka, and his course experience should stand him in good stead. 

Also, considering his first-round score average of 68.9 across eight events in 2026, expect Reed to start well on Thursday.

Alternative Bet: J.J. Spaun each-way @ 45/1

J.J. Spaun shot an opening round 66 at Oakmont last year to hold the overnight lead at the US Open and there is no reason why he cannot do so again.

The American led after the opening round of the Charles Schwab Challenge a few weeks ago following a scintillating 64. A week later at the Memorial, Spaun held a share of the lead after shooting 67 on Thursday at Muirfield Village.

As such, he is heading into the defence of his title after a couple of fast starts and having won earlier this season, Spaun could be dangerous from the very start Shinnecock.

Key Tournament Stats

• This will be the sixth US Open held at Shinnecock Hills

• Brooks Koepka won at this course in 2018 with a score of one-over par

• The course measures 7,440 yards and is a par-70

• J.J. Spaun is the defending champion and has led his last two tournaments after round one

• There hasn’t been a play-off to decide the US Open since 2008

Read more golf betting tips and predictions on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.