For a number of years, men's majors were almost exclusively being won by the elite of the game, with upsets increasingly rare.
In 2020, the majors were won by Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson. In 2021, it was Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm and Phil Mickelson. The year after was Cameron Smith, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler.
Since then, the list reads: Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Brooks Koepka, Rahm, Xander Schauffele, DeChambeau, Schauffele, Scheffler, Scheffler, JJ Spaun, Scheffler, McIlroy, Aaron Rai and McIlroy again.
Although Harman, Spaun and Rai were significant upsets, most of the recent winners have been from the upper echelons of the game, but Spaun and Rai were both in the last 12 months, while Kristoffer Reitan and JT Poston were also upsets on the PGA Tour this season and came at Signature Events no less.
We've taken a look at five players who have a chance of upsetting the odds at the 2026 US Open at Shinnecock Hills.
The 2023 Champion Golfer of the Year hasn't been firing on all cylinders this season, but after a poor end to 2025 and start to 2026, Brian Harman is turning things around steadily of late.
Prior to his missed cut at the Memorial, Harman had gained strokes in each of his last eight events.
A short hitter, Harman's best results have unsurprisingly come at shorter, more challenging venues. His four top-25s in 2026 have been at Pebble Beach, TPC Sawgrass, Harbour Town and Colonial, none of which can be overpowered. Perhaps most promisingly is Harman's record by the coast. When so many greens are missed, Harman can rely on his impressive short game to keep him out of trouble.
Although the sample size is small, there's a significant overlap of players performing at Shinnecock and Royal Portrush, host of the 2019 and 2025 Opens, where Harman was T10 last year.
With wind forecast, Harman could be one of the few players to relish the challenging conditions.
Akshay Bhatia is not a particularly strong driver, but conditions at Shinnecock could bring the field together somewhat off the tee. Typically you need to be long and straight at a US Open and Bhatia is neither, but the wide fairways will keep Bhatia on the short grass where he can take advantage of his solid approach play.
The biggest concern around Bhatia right now is his recent form, and a US Open is not the place to find it, but it's only been three months since his excellent win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Owing to the numerous missed greens, a strong short game is needed at Shinnecock, and Bhatia is much improved in that department.
Harris English is quietly going under the radar this season. In his first six events of the campaign, he finished no better than T22 and no worse than T28 before missing the cut at the Players.
Since a perfectly respectable T30 at the Masters, English has been T4 at Harbour Town and is T24-T18-T17 across his last three outings, two of which were Signature Events and the other a major.
English has been building an impressive major resume over the last few years, with his steady temperament well suited to major golf; the 36-year-old was T2 and solo-second at the PGA Championship and The Open last year.
While English's iron play has been nothing special in 2026, he's gained strokes off the tee in all bar one start this season and has gained strokes on the greens in 11 of his last 12 outings.
While cynics might have criticised Alex Fitzpatrick's backdoor ticket to the PGA Tour, he's making the very most of the opportunity given to him.
Would Fitzpatrick have made it onto the PGA Tour without big brother Matt? No, but on his own ball he's been outstanding of late.
In his first tournament as a PGA Tour card holder, Fitzpatrick was T9 at the Cadillac Championship, ranking third for SG: Ball-striking over the week, and if you thought that was a fluke, he followed that up with a solo-fourth at the Truist Championship where he actually led the field in ball striking.
A T75 at the PGA Championship suggested the bubble might have burst, but Fitzpatrick returned with a T6 at the Memorial. These are some of the biggest events of the season and Fitzpatrick is more than holding his own in them.
The 27-year-old only had one major start prior to this season, and he came an impressive T17 at the 2023 Open Championship, but playing the golf of his life right now, there's little reason to think he can't go well again this week.
If the US Open was played on a pitch and putt course, Harry Hall would be one of the favourites. It's a testament to his magical short game that he can be so competitive on the PGA Tour while being a distinctly mediocre ball striker.
Hall ranks 134th for SG: OTT on the PGA Tour this season and 89th for SG: APP, yet he sits 50th in the FedEx Cup standings and has a pair of top-10s at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Truist Championship.
While the US Open is very much not played on a pitch and putt course, Shinnecock Hills isn't a driving test, and with so many players missing greens on approach, it serves as a good leveller for Hall, who ranks eighth on the PGA Tour for birdie or better percentage from inside 125 yards, and seventh for scoring from 50-75 yards.
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