EFL pundit Gab Sutton has picked his selections from a full round of fixtures across the Championship, League One and League Two.
Gab Sutton's EFL tips & predictions
- Bristol City to beat Sheffield United @ 21/20
- Stockport County - Result & Over 3.5 Goals v Bromley @ 13/10
- Notts County/Draw - Double Chance v Wycombe Wanderers @ 4/5
- Gillingham to beat Accrington Stanley @ 2/1
- Walsall to beat Swindon Town @ 29/20
As an accumulator, pays at 61/1
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Bristol City to Win – 21/20
Bristol City v Sheffield United
I do worry a little bit about Sheffield United. The fans seem slightly subdued at the moment, even in that 3-0 home win over Lincoln the other night, and Chris Wilder lost it with the referee in his post-match interview, after the 3-2 loss at Portsmouth.
Wilder would say he’s an outspoken character and he’s always been like that, even when the Blades were competing for promotion, but when results aren’t what’s desired, a manager losing his cool doesn’t exactly scream stability.
Whereas, I look at Bristol City and I’ve been so impressed with the job Michael Skubala’s doing, in what’s been a big season of transition for the Severnsiders, on and off the field.
City lost 1-0 at home to Blackburn in midweek but I’m not sure how they lost that one, and I think good performances like that will reward themselves eventually – including on Saturday.
Stockport County: To Win & Over 3.5 Goals – 13/10
Stockport County v Bromley
Four out of Stockport’s five league wins have come with over 3.5 goals scored. Likewise, two out of Bromley’s four defeats have come that way too.
So, if you agree with our traders that Stockport have the implied probability of at least an 80% chance of winning, based on the odds of 1/4, and you want a lot more juice on the price, going for goals looks a great way of going about it.
County are playing some great football under Jimmy McNulty, and I’m surprised at how seamless the transition has been from Dave Challinor’s style.
Crucially, though, McNulty has been backed to bring in players who suit his approach, and the likes of Oli Whatmuff, Kyron Gordon and Ryan Glover have stepped up tremendously.
Double Chance: Notts County/Draw - 4/5
Wycombe Wanderers v Notts County
I’m not sure about Wycombe at home. There’s a compromised atmosphere around Adams Park due to some of the off-field conflicts, one of which fans being moved from the Beaconsfield terrace and told to sit down when they stand up in the Frank Adams Stand, even when they’re at the back and not obstructing anyone.
These kind of things don’t help, and it’s hard not to draw correlations between that and their home form, which reads three points from a winless five in the league, as well as a League Cup loss to Stevenage in their first competitive game.
Notts County travel to Buckinghamshire off the back of three straight league defeats, but they’ve all come against top six opposition.
I’m a big fan of Jacob Bedeau at the back for the Magpies, and I think he can help Martin Paterson’s side get a result.
Gillingham to Win - 2/1
Accrington Stanley v Gillingham
I have to give Accrington Stanley some credit for their four game unbeaten run, with one goal conceded in that time, but the caveat would be that three of those games are draws with bottom half opposition, even if that win over 8th-placed Cheltenham was impressive with a Charlie Warren brace.
Nonetheless, I’m not ready to move my view on Stanley too radically, much though John Doolan is doing an excellent job to maximize limited resources.
I still expect the Reds to be somewhere in the bottom six, and so I’m surprised to see visitors Gillingham as big as 2/1 for victory in East Lancashire – a short hop across the M65 from Gareth Ainsworth’s hometown Blackburn.
Ainsworth has done a tremendous job of revitalizing the Gills this year, and there’s a lot more positivity around the club this year, with fans watching a team that’s been freshened up with some new, youthful energy, with the likes of Logan Dobbs and Harry Waldock making a big impact after coming in from the academy.
Walsall to Win - 29/20
Swindon Town v Walsall
I’m really surprised Walsall are as big as 29/20 for victory at Swindon, given that Lee Grant’s side are still unbeaten and their hosts have taken one point from their last five.
There’s no let-up for the Wiltshire outfit in terms of their crippling early-season injury woes, with two of their top performers of the season so far, Stephan Negru and Dan Butterworth, ruled out.
Although Swindon’s home form began well, and they have won three times at the County Ground, I do have a feeling that because of the fractious relationship right now between the club and the fans, it could be even tougher at the County Ground than it is on the road.
The Saddlers, I don’t think will concede many goals, because they have the best defensive midfielder in the division in Sven Sprangler: it should be illegal for a League Two midfielder as good at snuffing out opposition attacks as him to not slow the game down when he has the ball – the Austrian keeps it ticking over nicely with crisp, first-time passes.
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