Veteran Renato Moicano faces up-and-coming lightweight Tom Nolan on Saturday, October 31 at the Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States.
The fights will begin at 5pm ET with the Early Preliminary Card, followed by the Preliminary Card at 7pm ET and the Main Card at 9pm ET.
Our article will give you our two best bets for the main event, as well as the current moneyline odds for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan betting picks and predictions
Under 3.5 rounds (-210)
Renato Moicano (21-7-1) faces Tom Nolan (11-1-0) in a classic veteran vs. rising prospect match-up.
Moicano was last seen in April, bouncing back from a two-fight losing streak by defeating another surging star in Chris Duncan via a second-round submission.
The two-fight skid saw losses against Beneil Dariush (UD) and his short notice title shot against Islam Makhachev, which came at 24 hours notice in a card switch-up in January 2025.
Before that, the 37-year-old had racked up four straight wins, beating Benoit Saint Denis (R2, TKO), Jalin Turner (R2, TKO), Drew Dober (UD) and Brad Riddell (R1, Sub).
Moicano was due to face Brian Ortega in September, but with the latter pulling out injured, this new fight was booked against Nolan.
Nolan will make his seventh Octagon walk this weekend, having won five straight fights since being TKO’d on his UFC debut by Nikolas Motta in January 2024.
In the almost two years since, the New Zealand fighter has beaten Fares Ziam (UD), Charlie Campbell (Sub, R1), Viacheslav Borshchev (UD), Alex Reyes (UD) and Victor Martinez (R1, TKO) to climb into the top 15 of the division.
Nolan is predominantly a striker but isn't the fastest despite his 6”3 frame and any finish within the distance is likely to come if he can overwhelm the Brazilian on the feet.
Moicano is a submission specialist and while he is a capable striker on the feet, he does possess some vicious ground and pound when the fight hits the deck.
Expect a cagey opening round or so but this one will catch fire pretty quickly after and come to a violent conclusion.
Renato Moicano to win by KO, TKO, DQ or Submission (+130)
Moicano has seven submission wins in the UFC, all coming via the way of rear-naked-choke.
The 37-year-old has four finishes in his last five wins, including a textbook submission of Duncan last time out.
Moicano’s wins over Saint Denis and Turner showed his willingness to dog it out, winning both by TKO as the fight hit the ground.
Nolan is untested over five rounds and at 26 years old will have to show maturity beyond his years to get his hand raised against a wily veteran who has shown he still has miles on the clock.
Expect Moicano to get a finish, with the double chance worth taking in this main event.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan odds
Renato Moicano | Tom Nolan | |
Moneyline | -120 | +100 |
By Decision or Technical Decision | +550 | +600 |
By KO, TKO or DQ | +700 | +200 |
By Submission | +190 | +1000 |
Total Rounds | Over | Under |
1.5 | -190 | +150 |
2.5 | +100 | -130 |
3.5 | +160 | -210 |
4.5 | +225 | -300 |
Fight To Go The Distance | Yes | No |
+255 | -350 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
