Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals continue their four-game series Wednesday night with neither club involved in the playoff race, but plenty of offense making this matchup worth watching.
Washington enters with a 62-72 record but a surprising +18 run differential, while Colorado sits 51-81 with a -144 mark.
The Nationals have the edge in the season series, winning three of the first five meetings while scoring at least seven runs in four of them.
First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 PM ET on MLB.TV.
Rockies vs. Nationals betting picks and predictions
Nationals Money Line (-125)
There is enough separation between these offenses and enough vulnerability in Colorado's pitching staff to make the Nationals my preferred side.
The biggest reason is Tanner Gordon. The Rockies right-hander owns a 5.75 ERA and 1.49 WHIP across 76.2 innings, allowing 16 home runs in that span.
His strikeout-to-walk profile is respectable at 64 strikeouts against only 15 walks, but opposing hitters have consistently punished mistakes in the zone.
The Nationals rank third in baseball in home OPS, sixth in OPS since the All-Star break and seventh against right-handed pitching.
They have also been dangerous throughout games rather than relying on one specific window, ranking third in OPS during innings one through six and fourth from the seventh inning onward.
That is important against a Colorado club with one of baseball's worst bullpens. The Nationals have already battered Colorado pitching throughout the season. They won 7-3 and 8-0 at Coors Field before opening this Washington series with a 13-3 victory.
Daylen Lile has been at the center of that success. He delivered an RBI triple in Colorado and then erupted for three hits and five RBIs, including a home run, in Monday's series opener. He went deep again Tuesday.
CJ Abrams has been equally dangerous in the matchup, collecting three home runs, three singles and a double during the Colorado portion of the season series before adding an RBI double Monday.
Washington is without James Wood, which removes its best power threat, but the lineup has remained productive. Andrés Chaparro, Keibert Ruiz, Abrams and Jose Tena all own home OPS marks north of .800, while Lile is giving the club another hot bat.
Colorado can score, particularly against right-handed pitching, but its 24-43 road record is difficult to overlook. Give me Washington to continue controlling this matchup.
Over 8.5 total runs (-125)
The Nationals' undecided pitching situation adds some uncertainty, but it also strengthens my interest in the Over.
Colorado's offense is better than its overall record suggests. The Rockies rank 15th in OPS since the All-Star break and an impressive third against right-handed pitching.
They're also fifth in baseball in OPS with runners in scoring position and sixth from the seventh inning onward.
Hunter Goodman remains the centerpiece. His 35 home runs rank among the league leaders and he is one of the few Rockies hitters who has actually been better away from Coors Field, carrying a road OPS north of .900.
He has already homered twice against Washington this season, once in Colorado and once yesterday.
Connor Norby has also driven in a run in each game of this current series. That makes Washington's eventual pitching choice important, but regardless of who starts, the Nationals' bullpen provides Colorado with opportunities later.
The other side of the matchup is even more attractive for Over bettors.
Gordon has allowed plenty of traffic and home runs, and he now faces one of baseball's best home offenses. Washington ranks third in home OPS and has scored 28 runs across five meetings with Colorado this season.
Four of those five games have produced at least 10 total runs, including finals of 7-3, 8-7 and 13-3.
Then there are the bullpens. Neither relief corps has been trustworthy, with both sitting among the bottom five in ERA. Even if the starters keep things reasonable early, there should be scoring opportunities in the middle and late innings.
This matchup has consistently produced offense and the statistical profiles suggest that trend should continue.
Daylen Lile to hit a home run (+450)
The obvious Colorado choice would be Goodman, but I'm siding with the hottest hitter in this particular matchup. Lile has punished Rockies pitching all season and is currently seeing the ball extremely well.
He recorded an RBI triple during the earlier series at Coors Field, then delivered three hits and five RBIs in Monday's opener, including a home run. He followed that performance by going deep again Tuesday.
Now he gets Gordon, who has surrendered 16 homers in fewer than 77 innings.
There is always risk in backing a hitter immediately after a power surge, but Washington's lineup matches up extremely well against right-handed pitching, and Lile has repeatedly shown that he can punish this particular staff.
Read more betting picks and predictions for the MLB on site
Rockies vs. Nationals odds
Colorado Rockies | +115 ML |
Washington Nationals | -125 ML |
Run Line | WAS Nationals -1.5 |
Total | O/U 8.5 |
Rockies vs. Nationals player props
Player home run odds
Hunter Goodman (COL Rockies) | +270 |
CJ Abrams (WAS Nationals) | +300 |
Abimelec Ortiz (WAS Nationals) | +350 |
Dylan Crews (WAS Nationals) | +390 |
Mickey Moniak ( COL Rockies) | +390 |
Daylen Lile (WAS Nationals) | +450 |
Read the latest MLB news on site
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
