Two AL East rivals - the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays - begin a four-game set starting tonight, Monday, May. 18.
The Yankees (28-19) have scuffled as of late, losing their last three series', but all were on the road.
New York is 14-13 on the road and 14-6 at home. Back in their friendly confines, the Bombers have a .861 OPS and have hit six more homers at home compared to on the road, even though they've played seven less games.
Aaron Judge and Ben Rice each have 15+ homers (16 for Judge), while Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger have six and five respectively.
They'll welcome in the Blue Jays (21-25) who have started to play more consistent baseball after starting the year poorly.
While Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn't gotten off to a powerful start, Kazuma Okamoto, Daulton Varsho, and Jesus Sanchez each have 5+ homers (Okamoto with 10).
Two lefties will be getting the start in this one: Patrick Corbin for the Blue Jays and Ryan Weathers for the Yankees.
Both have had good seasons, but they've also been somewhat susceptible to the long ball, especially to right-handed hitters.
Below, we'll try to find a couple potential home run hitters for each team, starting with the Yankees against Corbin:
Also, be sure to read our partner authors' expert betting picks and predictions article for Yankees vs. Blue Jays tonight on site.
Who Could Hit a Home Run in the Yankees vs. Blue Jays Game? – May 18
New York Yankees Hitters
Corbin has enjoyed one of his best years in his first season in Toronto, especially when it comes to limiting the home run ball.
A guy that has given up 30+ homers in two seasons has only allowed three in 34.1 innings this year. All three have come against righties, however, so we know what side of the plate to target.
Paul Goldschmidt (+400)
Behind Judge and Rice, Goldschmidt has the shortest odds to homer tonight, and for good reason.
After hitting just 10 home runs last year, Goldy is already at four this year, with three coming against lefties.
Goldschmidt has been dangerous from the leadoff spot against lefty pitchers, and he'll most likely been in that spot tonight.
He has two barrels in his last 10 balls put in play against pitchers with Corbin's pitch mix, and with the temperatures high, hopefully one of his barrels turns into a home run.
Amed Rosario (+800)
It's a longshot, but Rosario is a worthy candidate to go deep tonight.
He's hit two homers off lefties this year, one off a changeup, and one off a cutter. Those are Corbin's two of his top-three most thrown pitches.
Rosario has a 50% hard-hit rate in the last 10 BBEs (batted ball events) against pitchers similar to Corbin, plus a 60% pull rate - preferred for home runs.
He also has two barrels in that same timespan. He might get pinch-hit for once the bullpen comes in, but with his price at +800, he's a solid look to potentially hit a homer tonight.
Toronto Blue Jays Hitters
Weathers has allowed six homers this year, all to righties. Let's find some Jays that could go deep tonight.
Kazuma Okamoto (+425)
Okamoto leads the team in home runs, and he could add to that total tonight.
While nine of his 10 homers have come against right-handed pitchers, Okamoto is hitting it very hard against lefties recently.
In his last 10 BBE vs. pitchers with Weathers' pitch mix, his average exit velocity is 101.8 mph, and his pull rate is 60%.
He'll need to get it in the air (30% fly ball rate in that same timespan), and if he does, the ball could go a long way.
Lenyn Sosa (+700)
After being traded to the Blue Jays from the Chicago White Sox earlier this year, Sosa is starting to get hot at the plate.
Weathers' top two pitches are a four-seam fastball and a changeup. Against those pitches in his last 10 BBE, Sosa has a 50% hard-hit rate, 40% fly ball rate, and 60% pull rate - all ideal for homers.
He seems like value at his price.
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Odds within this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change. This article is not gambling advice, rather a discussion.
