Blue Jays vs. Yankees: Prediction, Props & Best Bets

The American League East takes center stage at Yankee Stadium on Monday night as the New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays at 7:05 PM ET on MLB.TV.

The Yankees (28-19) enter the contest as heavy home favorites, looking to snap a brief two-game skid after a tough weekend series.

Meanwhile, the underachieving Blue Jays (21-25) arrive in the Bronx desperate to gain ground in the division after scratching out a pair of narrow, low-scoring victories on the road against Detroit.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees betting picks and predictions

Yankees -1.5 (+105)

Targeting the Run Line offers immense value in this contest because the starting pitching matchup heavily favors the Yankees.

New York has been exceptionally reliable in these spot situations, carrying a commanding 26-17 record when favored on the Money Line this season.

The Yankees turn to young southpaw Ryan Weathers, who has been excellent this year with a 2-2 record, a flat 3.00 ERA, and a lethal 10.8 K/9 strikeout rate across 45 innings.

Because Weathers spent the bulk of his career in the National League, Toronto's young core has almost no live visual history against his pitch sequencing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kazuma Okamoto profile as excellent fastball hitters, but they will have to adjust on the fly against a cold Blue Jays offense that has flailed on the road, sliding to an 8-14 away record while slugging a miserable .650 OPS outside of Rogers Centre.

Conversely, Toronto starts veteran left-hander Patrick Corbin (1-1, 3.93 ERA), whose surface numbers hide a looming analytical disaster.

Corbin sports a staggering 6.09 expected ERA (xERA) and a poor 4.2 per cent strikeout-to-walk basis (K-BB%). It also helps that the active Yankees roster has historically seen off Corbin well, combining for a lifetime .802 OPS against him.

Given that New York features the number-one home offense in baseball, slugging .496 at Yankee Stadium with an elite .860 OPS, they are primed to exploit Corbin's heavy regression metrics and cruise to a multi-run victory.

Over 9 Total Runs (+100)

While New York's overall game total has trended under in their last five outings, the over has hit in eight of the Yankees's last 10 games at home.

In Monday’s contest, a spring heatwave has hit New York City, with temperatures soaring to a high of 81°F. This hot, humid air is less dense than the cold, which significantly reduces aerodynamic drag on a baseball. Combined with Yankee Stadium's notoriously short, right-field porch, the ball will carry exponentially further.

Furthermore, both teams are carrying completely exhausted bullpens into this matchup. Toronto had to burn all their top-tier, high-leverage relief arms over the last two days just to seal their tight wins in Detroit.

New York's bullpen is in equally bad shape, as their starting pitchers failed to complete five innings on both Saturday and Sunday, forcing heavy middle-relief usage.

With two tired, mediocre relief units (Toronto's 4.02 bullpen ERA vs. New York's 3.60) entering an environment tailored for home runs, a high-scoring environment is virtually guaranteed. Trust the elements and back over nine runs.

Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)

Paul Goldschmidt is the premier player prop target for the contest because he is the ultimate split king when facing left-handed pitching.

This season, Goldschmidt boasts a monstrous 190 wRC+ and a .361 isolated power (ISO) mark specifically against southpaws, while slashing an impressive .278/.422/.639. He has been absolutely white-hot in May, batting .351 with a 1.091 OPS.

The situational matchup against Corbin is a perfect storm for Goldschmidt. Corbin relies on a fading slider that right-handed hitters are tracking perfectly, and he has surrendered every single one of his home runs this season to righties.

Goldschmidt also possesses deep historical familiarity with Corbin from their years together in the NL West, hitting over .300 lifetime against him with an ISO mark near .300. In the warm, humid air, Goldschmidt should easily cash this line via a multi-hit performance or a single extra-base hit.

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Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds

Toronto Blue Jays	+165 ML
New York Yankees	-200 ML
Run Line	Yankees -1.5
Total	O/U 9

Blue Jays vs. Yankees player props

Player home run odds

Aaron Judge (NY Yankees)	+180
Ben Rice (NY Yankees)	+325
Paul Goldschmidt (NY Yankees)	+400
Kazuma Okamoto (TOR Blue Jays)	+475
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR Blue Jays)	+500
George Springer (TOR Blue Jays)	+525

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.