Yankees vs. Mets: Predictions, Props, & Best Bets - May. 16

Partner Authors Updated: May 16 2026 14:45

Night two of the Subway Series arrives at Citi Field Saturday night, and the betting landscape looks considerably different from what it did 24 hours ago. The Yankees took care of business in the opener, getting seven dominant innings from Cam Schlittler en route to a 5-2 victory. But Saturday's pitching matchup flips the script entirely.

A Yankees rotation that looked impenetrable on Friday now sends out Carlos Rodon, a southpaw just one start removed from elbow surgery already flashing the command issues that tend to haunt returning pitchers.

The Mets counter with Huascar Brazoban, a right-hander who has been one of the most effective arms in MLB's National League this season. With the first pitch at 7:15 p.m. ET, here are our Yankees vs. Mets picks.

Yankees vs. Mets betting picks and predictions

Mets ML (+105)

The case for the home side begins and ends with the starting pitching gap. Rodon opened his 2026 season last Sunday in Milwaukee, looking far from sharp, issuing five walks across just 4.1 innings while managing to throw only 42 of his 78 pitches for strikes.

The 33-year-old lefty spent the first six weeks of the season on the injured list rehabbing from elbow surgery, and one outing back does not suddenly resolve his command concerns. Walks are the enemy against a Mets lineup that capitalizes on traffic, and if Rodon cannot find the strike zone consistently, this game could get away from him quickly.

Brazoban, on the other hand, has been outstanding in 2026, putting up a 2.14 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and a 16-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 21.0 innings. His opener role has worked to near perfection, giving the Mets an early edge before handing the ball to bulk reliever David Peterson. It is a coherent two-pitcher structure that has proven capable of limiting opposing offenses deep into ballgames.

The Mets have gone just 2-8 as money line underdogs this season and have yet to win in six chances when priced at +110 or longer. Those numbers would normally be enough to fade the home side. But the pitching matchup tonight is categorically different from those eight losses, and Brazoban's profile gives the Mets a genuine edge.

The Mets are also 10-1 when scoring five or more runs, demonstrating real offensive upside when their lineup gets going. At plus money, the Mets represent the sharper side of the ledger tonight.

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+275)

Whatever superlatives have been applied to Aaron Judge throughout his career, the 2026 version may be the most dangerous yet. He carries a 1.010 OPS and has already gone deep 16 times in 45 games, putting him on pace to challenge the AL single-season home run record he set in 2022. Seven of those home runs have come in his last 18 games, a sustained power surge that has distanced him from every other slugger in the American League.

Tonight's setup is favorable for a long ball. Brazoban generates weak contact and strikeouts, but Judge's raw power renders those qualities largely irrelevant. His barrel rate and exit velocity place him among baseball's elite contact-quality hitters, and the Mets will use multiple arms tonight, giving Judge varied looks across his plate appearances.

The Yankees are 17-1 this season when connecting for two or more home runs, the best such mark in baseball, and Judge is the driving force behind that number. At nearly 3-to-1 odds, this is the strongest plus-money value on tonight's board.

New York Yankees vs. New York MLB odds

Yankees	-125
Mets	+105
Run Line	NY Yankees -1.5
Total	O/U 8.5

Yankees vs. Mets player props

Player home run odds

Aaron judge (Yankees)	+275
Juan Soto (Mets)	+375
Mark Vientos (Mets)	+425
Ben Rice (Yankees)	+475
Paul Goldschmidt (Yankees)	+525
Bo Bichette (Mets)	+575

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.