Tampa Bay Rays continue their seven-game homestand after splitting a four-game series with the New York Yankees, playing host to the Seattle Mariners, who travel Northwest a couple of hours after getting swept by the red-hot Miami Marlins.
Both teams are looking to move on from disappointing performances on Thursday. The Rays' newly minted All-Star starter, Drew Rasmussen, was tagged for six runs in the third inning of a 12-4 loss to the Yankees.
Meanwhile, Mariners All-Star snub Bryce Miller allowed six runs (four earned) in an 8-4 defeat to the Marlins.
The Mariners enter this weekend series at 47-47, a half-game back of first place in the American League West. The Rays sit at 54-37, four games ahead of the Yankees atop the American League East.
Friday's matchup features one veteran starter who has underperformed relative to expectations: Luis Castillo for Seattle, and one veteran starter who has overperformed relative to expectations: Nick Martinez for Tampa Bay.
Mariners vs. Rays betting picks and predictions
Rays ML (-120)
Right off the bat, two obvious signs are pointing toward a Rays victory.
The first is the home-and-road splits. Tampa Bay is 33-14 at home, while Seattle is just 20-27 on the road. The second is each team's record against the run line. The Rays are 53-37, while the Mariners are just 34-60.
Although Nick Martinez owns a modest 4.68 expected ERA compared to his impressive 2.61 actual ERA, according to Statcast, he has done an excellent job limiting hard contact, inducing chase and commanding the strike zone, posting one of the best walk rates in MLB. His changeup, in particular, has been outstanding.
The Mariners' active hitters have indeed gone 12-for-29 against Martinez in their careers. But he's an entirely different pitcher this season, and this is his first year back in the American League since 2017.
Seattle also ranks just 22nd in road OPS (.685) and 18th against right-handed pitching (.717). The Mariners also chase frequently, which plays directly into Martinez's strengths.
On the other side, Castillo's 4.79 ERA closely mirrors his 4.58 expected ERA. He has allowed plenty of hard contact this season, and while he generates some chase, this Rays lineup is significantly more disciplined than Seattle's. Tampa Bay's top three hitters, Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda, are also a combined 8-for-23 against Castillo with two home runs and a double.
The Rays rank sixth in baseball with a .772 OPS at home and seventh with a .752 OPS against right-handed pitching.
Also, with no Julio Rodriguez or Brendan Donovan, Tampa Bay has the healthier, more complete lineup.
Over 8 total runs (-115)
The total is a difficult read, but side with the underlying metrics for both starting pitchers and back the Over.
The Rays' offense has been too productive against right-handed pitching at home to ignore. Meanwhile, Martinez's history against these Mariners hitters, his reverse splits against a right-handed-heavy lineup, and his 3.12 ERA at home suggest he could still allow a couple of runs.
If Martinez does outpitch Castillo as expected, Tampa Bay's bullpen could help push this game Over the total. The Rays' relievers have posted a lackluster 4.38 ERA this season.
Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+300)
He may be the shortest-priced option on the board, but Junior Caminero to hit a home run is the favorite player prop.
Caminero is 4-for-8 with a home run against Castillo in his career and has already launched 27 home runs this season. Twenty-two of those have come against right-handed pitching, while 16 have come at home. He also owns a stellar 1.043 OPS at Tropicana Field.
He's also looking locked in ahead of next week's Home Run Derby. Although he has just five hits in July, four of them have left the yard.
Castillo gives up loud contact, and few hitters elevate and impact the baseball as consistently as Caminero.
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Mariners vs. Rays Odds
Seattle Mariners | +100 ML |
Tampa Bay Rays | -120 ML |
Run Line | TB Rays -1.5 |
Total | O/U 8 |
Mariners vs. Rays player props
Player home run odds
Junior Caminero (TB Rays) | +300 |
Cal Raleigh (SEA Mariners) | +320 |
Dominic Canzone (SEA Mariners) | +325 |
Jonathan Aranda (TB Rays) | +475 |
Cedric Mullins (TB Rays) | +525 |
Luke Raley (SEA Mariners) | +550 |
Randy Arozarena (TB Rays) | +600 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
