Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks open an important series Monday night with both clubs firmly positioned in the National League Wild Card race.
Philadelphia enters tied with the Cubs for the top Wild Card spot and owns a 4.5-game cushion over Arizona, which currently occupies the third position. That makes this series an opportunity for the Phillies to create meaningful separation entering September, while the Diamondbacks can tighten the race with a strong showing at home.
Arizona took two of three from Philadelphia earlier this season, with all three games decided by either one or two runs. Expect another competitive matchup with Aaron Nola opposing Brandon Pfaadt.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks betting picks and predictions
Phillies ML (-118)
There is plenty to like about Pfaadt's overall season, but this is not an ideal matchup for him.
The Diamondbacks right-hander owns a 3.51 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, and he has been particularly sharp lately with a 2.45 ERA in August. Still, those recent numbers deserve some context. After four consecutive scoreless outings, Pfaadt has allowed nine earned runs across his last 12.1 innings.
More importantly, Philadelphia hitters have consistently handled him.
The Phillies are batting .317 with a .919 OPS across 101 career at-bats against Pfaadt. Luis Arraez has been especially difficult to retire, going 13-for-24 with two doubles, a triple and a home run. Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto have all taken Pfaadt deep as well.
That history becomes even more notable because Pfaadt has been much more vulnerable against left-handed hitters this season. Lefties have produced a .761 OPS against him compared to just .551 from right-handers, creating favorable spots for Harper and Schwarber in Philadelphia's order.
Nola comes with more risk. His season-long numbers remain ugly at a 5.03 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and hitters from both sides of the plate have produced an OPS above .800 against him.
His recent form, however, has been far better. Nola has steadily lowered his ERA from 6.04 at the end of June and has pitched to a 2.79 mark in August.
He also owns a solid history against Arizona, holding current Diamondbacks hitters to a .242 average and .628 OPS. Lars Nootbaar and Gabriel Moreno have seen him well, combining to go 9-for-21, but the overall matchup still favors Nola more than his season ERA suggests.
Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. could return from the injured list, which would strengthen Arizona's lineup, but I still prefer Philadelphia's combination of matchup history and left-handed power.
Take the Phillies to win a close one.
Under 8.5 Total Runs (-120)
This is a tougher call considering both offenses have been among baseball's best since the All-Star break.
Arizona ranks third in MLB with a .765 OPS since the break, while Philadelphia sits fifth at .750. Chase Field is also one of the league's most hitter-friendly environments, which naturally creates some concern for an Under ticket.
Still, there are enough reasons to expect scoring to stay relatively controlled. For starters, both pitchers have been at their best over the past month.
Nola has a 2.79 ERA in August, while Pfaadt is at 2.45. Even with Pfaadt's recent stumble, both starters have shown a much greater ability to limit damage than they did earlier in the season.
Arizona's offense also has an unusual weakness for a club producing so well overall. The Diamondbacks rank second-to-last in baseball in OPS against right-handed pitching. That gives Nola an opportunity to work deeper into the game if he can continue his recent improvement.
Philadelphia has its own offensive concerns away from Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies rank second-to-last in road OPS, and their production drops considerably in late innings. They sit in the bottom eight in OPS from the seventh inning onward.
That matters in a game where I expect Philadelphia to score early against Pfaadt but have more difficulty extending the lead later. The first series between these teams also produced totals of nine, seven and seven runs. All three were competitive without developing into true slugfests.
Arizona should threaten late, especially if Marte returns, but I see the Phillies building an early advantage before their pitching holds on.
Something in the 5-3 range fits this matchup well.
Bryce Harper To Hit A Home Run (+475)
Harper is my favorite home run target on the board.
He enters Monday swinging one of his hottest bats of the season, hitting .326 with a 1.061 OPS and five home runs in August. Over the last seven days, he has recorded five multi-hit games while collecting four doubles and another homer.
The matchup only strengthens the case. Harper has already homered against Pfaadt in his career, and the right-hander's pronounced struggles against left-handed hitters create exactly the type of platoon advantage we want for this prop.
Harper also had success against Arizona earlier this season, delivering a major hit in all three April meetings. He finished that series with two RBI doubles and a home run.
There is potential late-inning value, too. Harper has previously gone deep against Diamondbacks closer Kevin Ginkel, giving this wager multiple paths even if Pfaadt navigates the early innings.
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Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds
Philadelphia Phillies | -118 ML |
Arizona Diamondbacks | +108 ML |
Run Line | PHI Phillies -1.5 |
Total | O/U 8.5 |
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks player props
Player home run odds
Kyle Schwarber (PHI Phillies) | +310 |
Corbin Carroll (ARI Diamondbacks) | +475 |
Bryce Harper (PHI Phillies) | +475 |
Lars Nootbar (ARI Diamondbacks) | +625 |
Brandon Marsh (PHI Phillies) | +850 |
Nolan Arenado (ARI Diamondbacks) | +850 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
