New York Mets begin a three-game series in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, against the Brewers, with first pitch set for 7:40 PM ET tonight.
The Mets enter the second of two stops on this road trip after some inspired play in Philadelphia over the weekend, where they took two of three from the Phillies to begin the season's second half.
Unfortunately for the Mets, the Brewers come into Monday having played even better over the weekend.
The Brewers swept the red-hot Miami Marlins to begin the second half, and now stay at home to take on the last-place Mets.
To complete the sweep and remain six games ahead of the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central, All-Star William Contreras clocked a pinch-hit walk-off three-run home run.
The Brewers currently stand at 54-45 against the run line, and the Under on the run total has been more dominant in their contests, hitting 53 times. The Mets, unsurprisingly, have struggled to the tune of a 43-57 mark against the run line.
We have an epic pitching matchup on tap for tonight as longtime Brewer ace Freddy Peralta suits up in Milwaukee for the first time as a member of the New York Mets, and he opposes NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski.
Mets vs. Brewers betting picks and predictions
Brewers -1.5 (-105)
During his tenure with the Milwaukee Brewers, Peralta posted a lifetime 3.19 ERA at American Family Field across 112 games, which included 84 starts. While that might give pause to oppose him here, the fact is that he has not been the same Freddy Peralta in a Mets jersey this year as he was for all those seasons in a Brewers jersey.
Peralta owns a 4.66 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP across 104.1 innings pitched. On the road and at night, he owns a dismal 5.58 ERA in both situations. Over his last six starts, he has failed to complete six innings every time. In his first three starts in July, he has been unable to complete five innings.
Behind him, the Mets carry MLB's 24th-rated road offence by OPS (.679), and 27th-rated offence vs right-handed pitching (.686).
Their challenge tonight is Misiorowski, who owns a 1.62 ERA, .76 WHIP and 167 strikeouts (all categories lead baseball). Plus he has been even better at home (1.59 ERA) and at night (1.43 ERA). Left-handed hitters are posting a sub-.100 AVG against him.
Behind him, the Brewers post baseball's 11th-best home offense by OPS (.749) and seventh-best offense against right-handed pitching.
At the end of the day, the Brewers are just in a completely different class than this Mets team, and the Mets are 21-30 on the road, while the Brewers are 32-18 at home. It will be an emotional return for Peralta, while Misiorowski means business in his first start post-All-Star break.
It's the Brewers comfortably tonight.
Under 7.5 total runs (-110)
The main reason we ride with the Under here is because it is tough to see how the Mets hit off Misiorowski.
First off, their roster has one hit in seven career at-bats against him. Second, they struggle to hit on the road and against right-handed pitching. And third, this guy dominates at home and is well rested.
On the flip side, there is upside here for Peralta if he can pitch through the emotion of his return. He is comfortable in this park and has had a lot of success. This is more psychological, but sometimes when you are playing with one of baseball's top pitchers, an offense sometimes feels like they can scratch across 2-3 runs and call it a day.
The Brewers might just do that tonight and let Misiorowski carry them.
Brice Turang to hit a home run (+475)
Peralta has been dinged up by left-handed bats this year, surrendering a .263 AVG and .795 OPS.
While left-handed hitting Brewers second baseman Brice Turang got off to an 0-for-7 start to the second half against the Marlins this weekend, when you combine home and RHP hitting splits, he has been the Brewers' best hitter (.870 home OPS + .907 OPS vs RHP).
Turang has added more power to his game going back to the second half of last year, and he has 14 home runs in 2026. He hit one on the Sunday before the break, and he feels like solid value tonight.
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Mets vs. Brewers Odds
New York Mets | +175 ML |
Milwaukee Brewers | -205 ML |
Run Line | MIL Brewers -1.5 |
Total | O/U 7.5 |
Mets vs. Brewers player props
Player home run odds
Juan Soto (NYM Mets) | +285 |
Jake Bauers (MIL Brewers) | +350 |
Jackson Chourio (MIL Brewers) | +400 |
Francisco Lindor (NYM Mets) | +420 |
Brice Turang (MIL Brewers) | +475 |
Jorge Polanco (STL Cardinals) | +475 |
Francisco Alvarez (AZ Diamondbacks) | +500 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
