The Chicago Cubs look to bounce back on Saturday after a frustrating series opener at Great American Ball Park, where Hunter Greene shut them out on three hits over seven scoreless innings in a 4-0 Cincinnati Reds win.
The Cubs got nothing going offensively and now trail the NL Central-leading Brewers by 7.5 games, making every win in this stretch critical as the trade deadline approaches.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, heads into Game 2 riding the momentum of a shutout victory but still sits at 43-50, fifth in the NL Central, with a pitching matchup on Saturday that looks nothing like Friday's.
The Cubs hand the ball to Javier Assad, who has been one of the most quietly effective starters in the National League over the past month, while the Reds counter with Nick Lodolo, a lefty who has been plagued by inconsistency and a career-long battle with blisters since making his delayed season debut in May.
First pitch at Great American Ball Park is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Here are our picks for Cubs vs. Reds tonight.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds betting picks and predictions
Chicago Cubs ML (-110)
The pitching matchup on Saturday swings firmly in Chicago's favor. Assad has been a stabilizing force for a Cubs rotation hit hard by injuries, and the numbers over his recent run are genuinely impressive.
Over his 14 appearances, the Cubs are 11-3, and Assad has leaned heavily on his sinker, a pitch manager Craig Counsell has credited as the engine of his entire approach. His season line of 6-1 with a 1.10 WHIP and 4.15 ERA across 56.1 innings reflects a pitcher who has kept his team in every game.
Lodolo, on the other hand, has been one of the most unreliable starters in the National League since making his belated 2026 debut in May after missing time with blister issues, a recurring problem that has shadowed his career. His season ERA sits at 4.68 with a 1.46 WHIP, and the Reds have gone just 3-8 in his 11 starts this year.
His underlying metrics tell an even bleaker story: his barrel rate has fallen to the 18th percentile, his fastball is being hit at a .300 average and .600 slugging percentage by opposing hitters, and he has served up home runs at an alarming rate throughout the season.
His last two outings have offered some encouragement, but this is a Cubs lineup that is looking for a statement response after being shut out on Friday.
Chicago is 25-23 as a road team this season, but they're 4-1 in their last five meetings with Cincinnati. Assad has not lost in his last five decisions, the bounce-back spot is real, and the starting pitching edge makes the Cubs the right side at near even money.
Dansby Swanson to hit a home run (+450)
Lodolo is a left-handed pitcher, and Dansby Swanson bats right; a split worth targeting given everything the southpaw has surrendered to right-handed bats this season.
Swanson leads the Cubs with 58 RBIs; he has 16 HRs, and he brings one of the more powerful right-handed swings in the Chicago lineup to a ballpark that consistently ranks among the NL's best for home runs.
Lodolo's changeup has lost nearly all of its effectiveness against right-handed hitters in 2026, with the in-zone whiff rate on the pitch dropping from 17% last season to just 5% this year. Without a reliable secondary offering to complement his fastball, he is being forced to live on a heater that right-handed hitters are punishing.
Great American Ball Park's dimensions and the warm July air add further lift to any ball Swanson squares up to his pull side, where most of his home runs land. Getting +450 on Chicago's RBI leader in a matchup that sets up this cleanly is a number worth backing.
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Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Odds
Chicago Cubs | -110 ML |
Cincinnati Reds | -120 ML |
Run Line | CHI Cubs -1.5 |
Total | O/U 10.0 |
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds player props
Player home run odds
JJ Bleday (CIN Reds) | +280 |
Elly De La Cruz (CIN Reds) | +310 |
Sal Steward (CIN Reds) | +325 |
Eugenio Suarez (CIN Reds) | +325 |
Ian Happ (CHI Cubs) | +350 |
Seiya Suzuki (CHI Cubs) | +350 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
