Chicago Cubs look to regain their momentum in Arizona against the Diamondbacks after snapping a three-game skid Sunday with an emphatic 19-2 win in Seattle.
The Cubs piled up 17 hits, including four home runs, to get back on track. National League MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong homered twice during the series and continues to anchor one of baseball's deepest lineups.
Chicago enters at 75-56 and holds the top NL Wild Card spot, while Arizona sits at 69-62 and is two games behind the Padres for the third Wild Card position.
The Diamondbacks have won three of their last four, including a 5-3 victory Sunday and, safe to say, this is a big series for both teams.
Two veteran right-handers take the mound Monday night, as 35-year-old trade deadline acquisition Kevin Gausman gets the nod for the Cubs, while 37-year-old Merrill Kelly will start for the Diamondbacks.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks betting picks and predictions
Cubs ML (-135)
Kelly has long been a model of consistency for the Diamondbacks. This season, however, the decline has been steep.
He has just 84 strikeouts against 57 walks in 129 innings, contributing to a 1.52 WHIP and 5.37 ERA. Things have been even worse at home, where he owns a 6.29 ERA.
Left-handed hitters have done significant damage against him, launching 18 home runs while posting an OPS north of .900. That is a dangerous profile against this Cubs lineup.
Chicago leads baseball in walks and has hit more road home runs than any team in the majors. That combination could spell trouble for Kelly, especially at a ballpark that has produced some of the strongest offensive numbers in baseball this season.
Gausman has struggled in his last two outings with the Cubs, and the fact that he exited his previous start with a hand cramp is at least worth monitoring. Still, his history against this Arizona lineup is encouraging.
Current Diamondbacks hitters are just 17-for-81 with a .561 OPS against Gausman. With Ketel Marte still sidelined, Arizona is also missing considerable power and one of its best situational hitters.
Expect Chicago's left-handed bats to make the difference as the Cubs take a high-scoring series opener.
Over 9.5 total runs (+110)
Alex Bregman leads the Cubs with an .890 road OPS and has been swinging a hot bat lately. He may be 0-for-8 lifetime against Kelly, but this version of the Arizona right-hander gives him his best opportunity yet to reverse that trend.
Then there are Chicago's left-handed hitters.
Michael Conforto and Crow-Armstrong should be feeling good after both went deep Sunday and they are a combined 7-for-19 with five doubles against Kelly.
Michael Busch deserves attention as well. He may not be producing at the same level he did in 2025 and has had his share of road struggles, but he is 4-for-8 against Kelly with a double, triple and home run.
The larger offensive trends also point toward runs.
The Cubs rank second in OPS since the All-Star break, second in OPS following a win and first in OPS from the seventh inning onward.
Arizona ranks fourth in OPS since the break, 11th following a win and ninth from the seventh inning onward.
Neither bullpen has been disastrous by ERA, but neither club has a deep collection of proven high-leverage arms, either.
With two veteran starters who have shown vulnerability, a hitter-friendly environment and two capable offenses, the over is the play.
Michael Busch to hit a home run (+550)
I wouldn't blame anyone for backing Crow-Armstrong to hit his 34th home run or Conforto to go deep for the second straight day, but I prefer Busch at a longer price - his history against Kelly is difficult to ignore.
Busch is 4-for-8 in the matchup with a double, triple and a home run, and his offensive approach gives him another advantage.
He consistently squares the ball up while limiting chase, which is particularly important against a pitcher who has struggled with command this season.
If Kelly continues having trouble finding the strike zone, Busch should force him into the zone and create favourable counts where he can hunt a pitch to drive.
Busch isn't the most obvious home run pick on Monday night's card, but, at +550, he may be one of the smartest.
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Cubs vs. Diamondbacks odds
Chicago Cubs | -135 ML |
Arizona Diamondbacks | +125 ML |
Run Line | ARI Diamondbacks -1.5 |
Total | O/U 9.5 |
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks player props
Player home run odds
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHI Cubs) | +300 |
Corbin Carroll (ARI Diamondbacks) | +450 |
Seiya Suzuki (CHI Cubs) | +450 |
Michael Conforto (CHI Cubs) | +500 |
Ian Happ (CHI Cubs) | +500 |
Michael Busch (CHI Cubs) | +550 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
