The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians will contest a crucial Game 5 of the ALDS on Sunday evening in Cleveland. With the series tied 2-2, whoever wins will head back to Tampa Bay with a chance to clinch a World Series berth on Monday night.
Following a rainout on Friday, Game 4 was pushed to Saturday and now Game 5 is on Sunday – what was supposed to be an open date for travel. The Rays bounced back from a Game 3 loss to prevail 7-3 last night, thus tying the series at two wins apiece and setting the stage for an absolutely massive matchup today.
With Sunday’s showdown set for 5:00 pm ET on TBS, it’s time to break down the matchup and discuss the best bets to make.
Rays vs. Guardians betting picks and predictions
Rays ML (-129)
Friday’s postponement means these two World Series hopefuls could play four games in four consecutive days. That’s nothing out of the ordinary for the regular season, of course, but it would be a tough test in the playoffs when starters are on shorter leashes and high-leverage bullpen arms are used with greater frequency.
Cleveland’s bullpen is strong, but the overall pitching situation for today's tilt favors Tampa Bay. The Guardians just implemented a bullpen game on Saturday, when they used seven different pitchers – including Shawn Armstrong, who served as the opener for a single inning.
It was a different story for the Rays, who got 5.1 innings of one-run baseball out of Nick Martinez and then backed him up with five relievers. Ian Seymour was the only reliever who threw more than 16 pitches.
Tampa Bay’s ‘pen is in good shape for Sunday, but will the visitors even need it? Maybe not. After all, Drew Rasmussen is toeing the rubber on five days of rest.
Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA), started Game 1 and pitched 6.0 innings while allowing just two runs to go along with seven strikeouts and zero walks. The right-hander also faced the Guardians on July 26 and befuddled them to the tune of 7.0 shutout winnings with nine strikeouts, one hit and one walk.
With momentum in hand following Saturday’s success, look for the Rays to ride Rasmussen to another victory.
Over 6.5 (-102)
Parker Messick is getting the ball for the Guardians. The left-hander is a very good pitcher, but he has been unspectacular so far in the playoffs.
Messick has allowed seven runs (three earned) on 12 hits and eight walks through 11.2 innings and has not logged more than 5.0 innings in any appearance. The number of base knocks and free passes he has allowed this month is especially alarming.
Also of concern for Cleveland is that Tampa Bay’s bats heated up in Game 4. Of the Rays’ seven runs, five came in the last three innings. They produced 11 hits and also drew two walks.
Following 10 total runs on Saturday, the over once again looks like the way to go.
Parker Messick Under 4.5 strikeouts (-110)
Messick compiled a respectable 193 strikeouts in 186.1 regular-season innings, but this is a difficult matchup. Tampa Bay struck out the fewest times in all of Major League Baseball this year. Unsurprisingly, Messick fanned only three Rays hitters through 5.0 innings during Game 2 on Tuesday.
Starters’ hooks are much quicker in the playoffs, so the southpaw may not work deep into this contest. He is also pitching on four days of rest rather than a full five. As such, reaching the five mark in the strikeout department feels like a tall task.
Read more betting picks and predictions for the MLB on site.
Rays vs. Guardians odds
Tampa Bay Rays | -129 |
Cleveland Guardians | +109 |
Run Line | TB Rays -1.5 |
Total | O/U 6.5 |
Rays vs. Guardians player props
Home run odds
Junior Caminero (TB Rays) | +525 |
Victor Mesa Jr. (TB Rays) | +625 |
Yandy Diaz (TB Rays) | +700 |
Jo Adell (CLE Guardians) | +625 |
Chase DeLauter (CLE Guardians) | +650 |
Jose Ramirez (CLE Guardians) | +750 |
Read the latest MLB news on site
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
