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US midterm election odds

November will see the US midterm elections, as voters head to the polls to decide who makes up the Senate and House of Representatives.

The House of Representatives is voted on every two years, with all 435 seats up for election as part of the midterms, while 35 out of 100 Senate seats are also up for reelection.

There will also be 36 gubernatorial elections to decide who will take office as governor of those states.

Politics

Generally, the sitting president sees their party lose both House and Senate seats, though Joe Biden and Donald Trump gained one and two Senate seats respectively at the previous midterms, both ensuring control of the Senate.

The House tends to be more volatile. Only twice since the Second World War has a sitting president seen their party increase their number of seats in the House of Representatives: Bill Clinton during his second term (though the Republicans retained control) and George W Bush a year after 9/11.

Trump's second term has been mired in yet more controversy, with rising fuel bills and the war in the Middle East two key factors in voters' minds when they head to the ballot box, particularly given Trump's pledge for no more wars.

As such, the Democrats are expected to take control of the House, priced at 1/14 for most seats. The House is currently split; with 218 needed for a majority, the Republicans have 218 seats to the Democrats' 214.

The race for control of the Senate appears closer, with the Democrats 4/9 favourites. The Republicans have marginal control with 53 of the 100 seats to the Democrats' 45, though two independents are aligned with the Democrats to take their tally to 47.

While many gubernatorial races will likely be lop-sided affairs, there are a number of swing states which look much tougher to call. Georgia is split down the middle (D-4/5, R-10/11), while Nevada is leaning slightly blue (D-8/11, R 1/1), and there's a chance that Texas elects a Democratic governor for the first time since 1995, priced at 9/4 to the Republicans' 3/10

Odds will display when market is available.

Odds shown in the above article correct at time of publishing and subject to change or withdrawal at any time.

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