The 2025/26 Top 14 play-off semi finals get underway on Friday night, as Toulouse, Racing 92, Montpellier and Stade Français look to reach the showpiece final.
Surprisingly, European Rugby Champions Cup winners Bordeaux Begles - who have comfortably been the best team on the continent this season - have failed to reach this stage of the competition, having finished eight in the French top flight.
Instead, the four semi finalists are made up of three of the top four teams from the regular season, with Racing 92 - who finished fifth - the only exception, beating fourth place Pau 31-33 in the play-off round.
With the European champions excluded - and no team finishing comfortably at the top of the table - the race is completely open to lift the Top 14 title.
With all that in mind, let's take a look at how the odds suggest the play-off semi finals will unfold.
Toulouse v Racing 92
Friday 19th June 2026 at the Stade Vélodrome in Marseille, kicking off at 20:05 BST
The first semi final will see Toulouse take on Racing 92 on Friday night.
Toulouse were the best team in the Top 14 over the course of the domestic season, ultimately finishing at the top of the standings on 86 points at the end of the regular season.
Arguably Europe's biggest rugby club, Toulouse head in search of a 25th and fourth consecutive title this season, possessing one of the most expensive squads in the division.
Meanwhile, their opponents - who were a strong force in European rugby in the late 2010s - head in search of their first title since 2016 and what would be their seventh time winning their domestic league.
The top seed are certainly not expected Toulouse (to lose) - sorry - at the semi final stage, with the odds placing them as 3/10 heavy favourites to advance to the Grand Final.
Their opponents are underdogs - or non-favori - for the fixture, with the odds available at a price of 12/5 for them to cause an upset and qualify for the Top 14 final.
Montpellier v Stade Français
Saturday 20th June 2026 at the Stade Vélodrome in Marseille, kicking off at 20:05 BST
Montpellier and Stade Français will contest the second semi final, facing off at the same venue on Saturday evening.
The EPCR Challenge Cup winners have had a strong 2025/26 season, finishing just four points off top spot domestically, as they chase a League and Europe double this campaign.
As they only side to stop Toulouse from winning their domestic league in the last six years - having lifted the 2022 title - Montpellier will be hoping to win just their second ever Top 14 title.
Meanwhile, Stade began to show some of their quality of years gone by this season, with France's second most successful club rugby side earning themselves a third place finish this season.
Having last lifted the Top 14 back in 2015, Stade will be hoping to return to their era of success, as they look to add what would be a 15th title in their rich history.
Should they make the Grand Final, it would be their first appearance at the French showpiece since they last won the title - over a decade ago.
Despite being separated domestically by just three points - and competing in the semi final on neutral ground - Montpellier head into the contest as 8/15 favourites to reach the Top 14 Grand Final, whilst Stade Français enter the match as 11/8 outsiders.
Top 14 winner odds
Given their expected dominance in their home semi final, it's no surprise that Toulouse are the heavy favourites to win the Top 14 this season, priced at 4/6 to lift the trophy.
Montpellier, who are favourites to win their respective semi final, are next in the betting, priced at 11/4, while their opponents - Stade Français - are priced at 6/1.
Racing 92, who are expected to be knocked out at the semi final stage by Toulouse, are the widest to lift the Top 14 title, priced at 10/1.
Odds will display when markets are available and odds written in this article were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.
