Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz has battled back from a long-term wrist injury to make his return at the US Open but, despite his fierce rival Jannik Sinner being forced to miss the final Grand Slam of the season, Racing Post Sport's Aaron Ashley thinks the favourite must be vulnerable.
Alcaraz has not played a competitive singles match for more than four months, but has worked hard to make his appearance at Flushing Meadows, where he defeated Jannik Sinner to take last year's title.
World number one Sinner hasn't been so fortuitous, though, and misses out due to a right knee injury, leaving Alexander Zverev as the US Open top seed.
Jack Draper, Joao Fonseca, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Ugo Humbert are other high-profile absentees in New York, but there is still plenty of talent on show with four-time champion Novak Djokovic hoping for one last hurrah.
Up-and-coming talents Arthur Fils, Rafael Jodar and Ben Shelton are out to make their presence felt alongside Felix Auger-Aliassime, Taylor Fritz and Daniil Medvedev.
Men's US Open Tips and Predictions
Outright Prediction: Novak Djokovic @ 8/1
Dark Horse Tip: Taylor Fritz @ 12/1
Expert Tip: Ben Shelton to win fourth quarter @ 7/2
Men's US Open Format
The US Open is a 128-player draw and to be crowned champion the winner must successfully come through seven best-of-five set matches.
The highest-ranked 32 players in the tournament will be seeded, so can't meet a fellow member of that echelon until the third round, while the top four seeds are all housed in separate quarters of the draw and won't lock horns until the semi-final.
First-Round Matches to Watch
Matteo Berrettini v Stan Wawrinka
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Arthur Fils
Marin Cilic v Andrey Rublev
Arthur Fery v Lorenzo Musetti
Stan Wawrinka won the US Open title in 2016, beating Djokovic in the final, and he is set for a farewell after announcing his retirement at the end of the season.
Wawrinka accepted a wildcard and meets a former Wimbledon runner-up in Matteo Berrettini in round one, while another past winner in 2014 champion Marin Cilic collides with 23rd seed Andrey Rublev.
Stefanos Tsitsipas, a two-time Grand Slam runner-up, clashes with a potential champion of the future in Frenchman Fils and will be hoping to rediscover his former sparkle.
But the most eye-catching first-round clash could be between British star Arthur Fery and 13th seed Lorenzo Musetti. Fery was a shock Wimbledon semi-finalist in July and knows what it takes to cause an upset.
Men's US Open Favourites
(Odds will display when the market is available).
In the absence of Sinner, Alcaraz heads the betting at 7/4 and is bidding to win the US Open for a second year running.
However, the Spaniard has not played competitively for four months, missing both the French Open and Wimbledon, so it would be an almighty feat to return with a win.
Zverev, having claimed a belated Grand Slam title in Paris and been runner-up at Wimbledon, is 3/1 and is tournament top seed.
Djokovic, a 24-time Grand Slam champion, is 8/1 and may not get a better opportunity to add to his Major haul.
Jodar, Alcaraz's Spanish compatriot, has made huge strides in a short period of time and is 10/1, the same price as another rising star in Fils.
The home challenge is led by 2023 semi-finalist Shelton at 11/1, while his American compatriot Fritz, who was runner up two years ago, is 12/1.
Data-Led Men's US Open Predictions & Analytics
Top seed Alexander Zverev has won 46 of his 59 matches this season, triumphing at 78 per cent in 2026
Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz has won 22 of his 25 matches in 2026, prevailing 88 per cent of the time
Novak Djokovic has played just 20 matches in 2026, winning 14 of those matches at a 70 per cent strike-rate
Taylor Fritz has made a final and two quarter-finals in his last three US Open appearances, holding a tournament record of 20 wins in 30 outings
Men's US Open Outright Prediction
Djokovic is a 24-time Grand Slam, having won the US Open four times with the most recent success coming in 2023, and the 39-year-old could be primed to claim a fairytale win at Flushing Meadows this year.
The legendary Serb has failed to win a Grand Slam title since last successful in the States three years ago, but he has made two finals and six semi-finals in his last eight Major appearances.
A runner-up effort at the Australian Open earlier in the season shows that he is still extremely capable and he has been mindful to rest his body after making the Wimbledon semi-finals in July.
Djokovic knows coming into a Grand Slam fresh is his best chance given his advancing years and, with no Sinner and Alcaraz returning from a lengthy absence, he could have a golden opportunity to claim one final hurrah.
The third quarter looks a soft part of the draw with Medvedev a declining force and Frances Tiafoe limited and there is nothing to say Alcaraz will still be standing were they to meet in the semis.
Dark Horses to Watch
A lightning quick hard-court on home soil is what brings out the best in big-serving American Fritz, who was runner-up to Sinner at Flushing Meadows two years ago.
This speedy surface plays to Fritz's strengths and he won the Washington Open earlier this month, recording wins over Brandon Nakashima and Jodar to take the title.
That shows that he is in fine form ahead of his home Grand Slam and he has made at least the quarter-final in seven of his last 12 Major appearances.
Fritz's toughest test before a potential quarter-final with Auger-Aliassime or Learner Tien would see him meet Flavio Cobolli in round four, but the Italian is far more likely to strike on clay.
So, the American can enjoy another deep run and, while top seed Zverev would be a tough opponent in the semi-finals, he has won seven of their last eight meetings.
Expert Tip
If fully fit, Alcaraz would be a difficult man to oppose, but there has to be concerns after four months off and he has plenty of dangers in a competitive fourth quarter of the draw.
An opening-round clash with Roman Safiullin won't be easy, while Tommy Paul could await in round four.
However, it is the quarter-finals where things will get seriously tricky was he to face either Fils or Shelton.
Fils has to be respected, having won the Cincinnati Masters last time out, while Shelton will have a passionate home crowd on side and claimed back-to-back Canadian Open titles in Montreal earlier this month.
The American claimed some notable scalps in Canada with wins over Fonseca, Jakub Mensik, Tien and Nakashima and can strike if Alcaraz falters.
Who Wins the Men's US Open?
Recent Grand Slam tournaments have been dominated by Alcaraz and Sinner, but for the first time in a while the US Open could provide some value.
Sinner is sidelined with an on-going knee problem and Alcaraz has not played competitively since the Barcelona Open in April, so has every right to be undercooked.
Djokovic continues to go deep in Grand Slams despite not getting any younger and should probably see this as his final chance to make it 25 Major wins.
He has a decent early draw to work with and has been picky with his schedule, so ought to be raring to go.
However, it is always dangerous to underestimate 2024 runner-up Fritz under these conditions and home support will aid his chances.
Zverev has made back-to-back Grand Slam finals, which includes winning the French Open, but he was a third-round casualty last season and his only final at Flushing Meadows came back in 2020.
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
