Carlos Alcaraz is the defending champion at the US Open and he is a warm favourite to follow up at Flushing Meadows in the absence of world number one Jannik Sinner, who is sidelined with a knee injury.
The shock first-round exit of 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic has already strengthened Alcaraz's title claims, but the Spaniard has a four-month lay-off to overcome having not played competitively since Barcelona in April.
That leaves Alcaraz with a bit to prove as he has persistently struggled with a wrist injury and he will need to be on his A-game against first-round opponent Roman Safiullin, who made the last-16 at Wimbledon earlier in the summer.
Safiullin is a former Grand Slam quarter-finalist and will be hoping to catch Alcaraz cold.
However, Alcaraz is already a seven-time Grand Slam champion and the 23-year-old has won five of the last seven majors that he has contested to suggest he could be a class above the US Open field if negating his recent spell on the sidelines.
Roman Safiullin v Carlos Alcaraz Tips Summary
Best Bet - Carlos Alcaraz to win & over 35.5 games @ 13/10
Alternative Bet - Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-1 @ 9/4
Bet Builder - Four sets, Over 0.5 tiebreaks & Roman Safiullin 5+ double faults @ 23/5
Roman Safiullin v Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
Best Bet: Carlos Alcaraz to win & over 35.5 games @ 13/10
Alcaraz has been easy to back for his first-round clash with Safiullin, with the 23-year-old set to return to the court for the first time since withdrawing from Barcelona in April.
It would be somewhat of a concern that the Spaniard has not played in a US Open preparation event, but the fact that he returns for his title defence after four months off could be seen as a positive.
However, there is still sure to be some rustiness and he may need this first test to grow into the competition.
That gives Safiullin some hope of keeping this competitive and he showed the quality that he possesses at Wimbledon, where he upset seeds Andrey Rublev and Joao Fonseca on the way to the fourth round.
The Russian was beaten in the last-16 by Djokovic, but he won a set and took another to a tiebreak, so Alcaraz may have to be patient before stamping his authority.
If fully wound up, then Alcaraz will progress, but the level he is returning at needs to be seen first and Safiullin won't go down without a fight.
Alternative Bet: Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-1 @ 9/4
Alcaraz is trying to bookend his season with Grand Slam titles after starting the year with victory at the Australian Open, but he will have to do it the hard way at the US Open, having not been seen since April.
The Spaniard would have done a lot of work behind closed doors, but there is nothing quite like match sharpness and Safiullin is dangerous to underestimate.
The Russian is blighted by inconsistencies, but a strong showing at SW19 suggests that he is in decent touch and Alcaraz has that to prove.
The natural talent of Alcaraz should carry him through, but Safiullin, who won their only previous hard-court meeting indoors in Paris in 2023, has the power to test him.
Alcaraz can go through lulls in the middle of his matches so will have to be switched on from the off and Safiullin has failed to win a set in only one of his last 21 matches.
Roman Safiullin v Carlos Alcaraz Bet Builder Tip
Four sets
Over 0.5 tiebreaks
Roman Safiullin 5+ double faults
Pays 23/5
Alcaraz may struggle to stamp his authority in straight sets and taking the match to last four sets makes plenty of appeal. Safiullin took a set off Djokovic at Wimbledon and could repeat the feat against the Spaniard.
With Safiullin strong on serve and Alcaraz surely going to have an air of vulnerability about him, there could be at least one tiebreak too.
Safiullin does have the tendency to throw in a few double faults. He has made four in his two previous meetings with Alcaraz, but they were best-of-three set contests and this longer distance could lead to a higher tally.
Learn more about how Bet Builders work in our Bet Builder guide.
Key Match Stats
Carlos Alcaraz has won 17 of his last 19 hard-court matches
Roman Safiullin has won a set in 20 of his last 21 matches
Safiullin has won 10 of his last 14 matches
This pair have met twice previously, each winning once
Alcaraz has dropped at least a set in four of his last nine outings
Alcaraz has won 24 of his 27 US Open career matches
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
