No American man has won the US Open since Andy Roddick's 2003 triumph, but a home player will be in Sunday's final, with Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe facing off in the second semi-final this evening.
Shelton produced arguably the biggest result of his career in the quarter-finals, knocking out tournament favourite Carlos Alcaraz in the latest ever US Open finish, and he is 1/3 to advance to a first Grand Slam final.
His semi-final opponent Tiafoe came through another all-American affair in the quarters, recovering from two sets down to defeat Alex Michelsen, who hit 1/100 in-play having served for the match.
Tiafoe is a 12/5 shot and will have to defy the odds again if he's to make Sunday's final.
Frances Tiafoe v Ben Shelton Tips Summary
Best Bet - Ben Shelton to win & both players to win a set @ 6/5
Alternative Bet - First Set - Over 1.5 Total Breaks of Serve @ 11/10
Bet Builder - Ben Shelton to win match, Shelton over 3.5 breaks of serve, Total sets: four sets @ 39/10
Frances Tiafoe v Ben Shelton Prediction
Best Bet - Ben Shelton to win & both players to win a set @ 6/5
Shelton proved he was a genuine US Open contender with his tireless win over Alcaraz and the 23-year-old can secure a place in the final by beating Tiafoe in an entertaining match.
The pair have met on four occasions, three times on hard courts and once on US clay, and it is Shelton who has prevailed on three occasions, including in four sets in their first meeting at the 2023 US Open.
Tiafoe would gain his revenge the following year, taking out his younger compatriot in a thrilling 4-6 7-5 6-7 6-4 6-3 win, but their Flushing Meadows trilogy bout looks likely to go Shelton's way.
While always blessed with explosive power, Shelton has become a more complete player over the last two seasons, and he arrived in New York full of confidence after winning the Canadian Open in mid-August.
He came through a bruising encounter against Alcaraz, weathering a storm early in the fifth set before winning in a 10-point tiebreak, something that Tiafoe was also forced to do in his win over Alex Michelsen.
Tiafoe was poor in the opening two sets of that match and, had he faced a more experienced Grand Slam performer, he might not have been given the chance to turn it around.
Shelton, who, like Tiafoe, has played and lost two Grand Slam semi-finals, is unlikely to be so generous if his opponent makes a slow start on Arthur Ashe, a court on which Tiafoe is clearly not entirely comfortable.
The 28-year-old will likely find his best form at some stage and should win a set, but Shelton looks more likely to maintain a higher level throughout.
Alternative Bet - First Set - Over 1.5 Total Breaks of Serve @ 11/10
There will be nerves for both men with so much at stake and the best way to profit in that regard could be to back over 1.5 total breaks of serve in the opening set.
Tiafoe served abysmally in the early stages against Michelsen, making just 42% of his first serves and being broken three times in the opening set.
There were three breaks of serve in the first set of the pair's 2024 US Open clash and something similar may happen in this semi-final.
Frances Tiafoe v Ben Shelton Bet Builder Tip
Ben Shelton to Win Match
Shelton Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve
Total Sets: Four Sets
Pays 39/10
Everything is in Shelton's favour and he can advance to the US Open final, although Tiafoe is a real threat and is likely to find a level that enables him to at least win a set.
However, his serving wasn't good enough at times in the quarter-finals, and Shelton, who forced 16 break points in his win over Alcaraz and converted five of them, looks a decent bet to break serve four or more times.
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Key Match Stats
Shelton leads Frances Tiafoe 3-1 in head-to-head meetings
Their two previous US Open meetings were settled in four and five sets
Both men are contesting their third Grand Slam semi-final having lost their first two
Shelton has served 51 aces in this year's US Open; Tiafoe 39
Shelton has clocked the fastest serve in this year's tournament at 146 mph
Tiafoe has broken serve 24 times in the tournament; Shelton 23 times
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
