Carlos Alcaraz has had a season marred by injury and he ended an eight-month title drought with victory in Tokyo on Tuesday, seeing off Jiri Lehecka in the final to return to the winners’ enclosure.
Alcaraz had not lifted a trophy since winning the Qatar Open in February but he was back to his best in Japan, a performance that has seen him installed as favourite to follow up in Shanghai.
The world number three looks to have put the wrist injury that was causing trouble firmly behind him and, with fierce rival Jannik Sinner still sidelined, he will be determined to win a first Shanghai Masters title.
Valentin Vacherot was a shock winner in Shanghai last season, beating Arthur Rinderknech in the final, and the betting suggests Alexander Zverev may be Alcaraz’s toughest competitor.
The German world number two has had a season to remember, winning Grand Slam titles at the French Open and the US Open, but he could make only the quarter-final in Beijing last time out.
Zverev was beaten in the Chinese capital by Novak Djokovic, who is a four-time winner in Shanghai and was runner-up to Sinner in 2024.
However, Djokovic’s exploits in Beijing could be difficult to back up quickly as a 39-year-old and Ben Shelton, Arthur Fils, Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev, Rafael Jodar and Learner Tien are just some players in contention who will be hoping to capitalise if Alcaraz disappoints.
Shanghai Masters Tips Summary
Best Bet - Ben Shelton each-way @ 10/1
Alternative Bet - Daniil Medvedev each-way @ 22/1
Alternative Bet - Frances Tiafoe each-way @ 33/1
Shanghai Masters Prediction
Best Bet: Ben Shelton each-way @ 10/1
With just five weeks to go until the season finale in Turin, motivation is high for those wanting to break into the top eight and Shelton has high hopes of ending the year with a top-five finish for the first time.
Shelton has played only two Davis Cup matches since his breakthrough run to the US Open final last month, where he became just the second American man to reach the championship match in New York since Andy Roddick in 2006, and that freshness could be key to his chances in Shanghai.
The 23-year-old looks like a Grand Slam winner in waiting and the former Shanghai Masters quarter-finalist may be able to take his game to a new level with that achievement behind him.
Having won the Canadian Open in Montreal in the middle of August, Shelton has won 12 of his last 16 matches and he will be keen to get revenge on Zverev for his US Open final defeat were they to renew rivalry in the last four.
Djokovic could await in the quarter-final but the 39-year-old may be vulnerable having come through some tough tests to make the final in Beijing and he should have too much quality for Jakub Mensik and Frances Tiafoe were he to meet them instead.
Alternative Bet: Daniil Medvedev each-way @ 22/1
Medvedev lost his cool in his semi-final showdown with Djokovic in Beijing, suffering a late disqualification for hitting a ball into the stands which hit a spectator in the face.
Medvedev trailed 7-5 5-3, with Djokovic serving for the match, so the damage was already done but the pressure is on for him to respond in Shanghai.
The Russian will lose all the prize money and ranking points he earned from his run to the semi-finals in Beijing, leaving him eighth and in the final qualifying spot for November's ATP Finals.
But that could be costly and a deep run may now be vital in Shanghai, where he was champion in 2019 and a semi-finalist last year.
Prior to that run to the last four in Beijing, Medvedev was crowned champion at the Hangzhou Open - his first title since Dubai in February - and that means that he is finishing the season strongly.
With just two defeats in his last 12 matches, the world number five has found some form and if he can regather his composure then he looks like being a threat to all.
Alternative Bet: Frances Tiafoe each-way @ 33/1
There is no guarantee that Djokovic will back up his title charge in Beijing and that could leave American ace Frances Tiafoe as an interesting candidate in the fourth quarter of the draw.
Tiafoe was unable to land a blow in Tokyo last time out but that was his first tournament since he reached the semi-final of the US Open.
That run to the last four of his home Grand Slam came on the back of a runner-up effort in Cincinnati and means that he has won 11 of his last 14 matches.
These lightning-fast conditions should play to Tiafoe’s strengths and if he can get past Djokovic were they to meet in the fourth round then the draw should open up for him.
Key Tournament Stats
Alcaraz is featuring in the Shanghai Masters for a third time and has yet to go beyond the quarter-finals
Four-time Shanghai champion Djokovic has made at least the semi-finals in 10 of his last 11 tournament appearances
Top seed Zverev has failed to go beyond round four in his last three tournament appearances
Medvedev won this event in 2019 and has reached at least the quarter-finals in three of his last four visits to Shanghai
Shelton has won 12 of his last 16 matches
Tiafoe has won 11 of his last 14 matches
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
