Alex de Minaur has reached six Grand Slam quarter-finals in the last three seasons but the reliable Australian faces a test of his mettle against Botic van de Zandschulp in the US Open second round.
De Minaur has spent all but one week in the world's top 12 since first entering in August 2023, and will be eyeing a deep run in New York as he bids to improve on a run of four consecutive quarter-final appearances in hard-court Grand Slams.
The 27-year-old Australian dispatched Italian qualifier Andrea Guerrieri in straight sets in round one, but his second-round opponent Van de Zandschulp was equally impressive in his dismissal of Briton Jan Choinski.
De Minaur is the 3/10 favourite for tonight's clash, with Van de Zandschulp 5/2 to cause what could only be termed a minor upset.
Botic van de Zandschulp v Alex de Minaur Tips Summary
Best Bet - Alex de Minaur to win & both players to win a set @ 6/4
Alternative Bet - Alex de Minaur to win from behind @ 4/1
Bet Builder - Alex de Minaur to win the match; Under 8.5 breaks of serve; Over 35.5 games @ 11/2
Botic van de Zandschulp v Alex de Minaur Prediction
Best Bet: Alex de Minaur to win & both players to win a set @ 6/4
Van de Zandschulp pulled off one of the great US Open shocks when knocking out 1/100 shot Carlos Alcaraz in the second round in 2024 and De Minaur will not be taking this challenge lightly with that match in mind.
While the Dutchman is a danger, De Minaur is known for his consistency which, coupled with a 4-0 head-to-head record in the Australian's favour, suggests he is still the most likely winner.
Van de Zandschulp is respected in the match betting and rightly so given his first-round performance against Jan Choinski, whom he defeated 6-3 6-1 6-7, making 67% of his first serves and winning 51 out of 58 points in doing so.
He has posted eight career wins over top-ten players, and he has the class to claim a set over another, but he is yet to find a way to break down De Minaur's high-class defences over a full match, which could ultimately prove his undoing.
Alternative Bet: Alex de Minaur to win from behind @ 4/1
At an attractive price, it could also be worth having a bet on De Minaur to win the match from a set behind.
Two of his four previous meetings with Van de Zandschulp came in straight sets, but the other two were victories from behind in best-of-three contests.
Van de Zandschulp is likely to be at his most dangerous in the early part of this one, whereas De Minaur has the fitness and stamina to fight back into the match if needed.
Botic van de Zandschulp v Alex de Minaur Bet Builder Tip
Alex de Minaur to win the match
Under 8.5 breaks of serve
Over 35.5 games
Pays 11/2
De Minaur leads 4-0 in head-to-head meetings and, while Van de Zandschulp is a tricky opponent, he should have enough quality to frank that form in a long match featuring over 35.5 games.
Boost the Bet Builder with under 8.5 breaks of serve. De Minaur is a brilliant returner, but Van de Zandschulp served superbly against Choinski and will be difficult to break if he puts up similar numbers.
The pair played out a long three-set match in Rotterdam in February, won 3-6 7-6 7-5 by De Minaur, in which there were only four breaks of serve.
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Key Match Stats
De Minaur leads Van de Zandschulp 4-0 in head-to-head meetings
De Minaur has won 10 of his last 11 Grand Slam second-round matches
Van de Zandschulp has made the third round in just two of the last 16 Grand Slams
Van de Zandschulp won 51 of 58 points behind his first serve in round one (88%)
Van de Zandschulp thundered in 18 aces in that straight-sets win over Jan Choinski
Only Jannik Sinner has won a higher percentage of second-serve return points on the ATP Tour this season than De Minaur (54.25%)
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
