Ben Shelton is bidding to become the first player to successfully defend the Canadian Open title in Montreal since Rafael Nadal followed up in 2019 and he should be optimistic about his chances against fellow American Brandon Nakashima.
Shelton defeated Karen Khachanov in last year's final and he has made the most of a tournament which was missing leading lights Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic.
Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev were early casualties and fifth seed Shelton has capitalised, winning all five of his matches without dropping a set.
For Nakashima, this is the biggest match of his career to date as he has won only one title on the ATP Tour and that came at ATP 250 level at the San Diego Open back in September 2022.
That adds to the pressure as he has lost three of his four ATP Tour finals, the latest of which came at the Brisbane International in January, but he has beaten three seeds in Arthur Rinderknech, Luciano Darderi and Rafael Jodar on his way to this title decider.
Ben Shelton v Brandon Nakashima Tips Summary
Best Bet - Ben Shelton to win 2-0 @ 11/8
Alternative Bet - Brandon Nakashima under 0.5 breaks of serve @ 6/4
Bet Builder - Ben Shelton to win, Ben Shelton 10+ aces & Brandon Nakashima to win under 12.5 games @ 5/1
Ben Shelton v Brandon Nakashima Prediction
Best Bet: Ben Shelton to win 2-0 @ 11/8
Shelton won last year's Canadian Open and defeated Nakashima in the third round on the way to the title, prevailing 6-7 6-2 7-6.
However, given the pressure Nakashima will be under in the biggest match of his career, this could be much more straightforward.
Shelton is two years younger than Nakashima at 23 and the world number ten has the game to pose the biggest challenge to Sinner and Alcaraz in the years to come.
Shelton has shown his class in Montreal, winning all five matches in straight sets, which is made even more impressive by the fact that he has had to face Joao Fonseca, Jakub Mensik and Learner Tien.
The fifth seed has barely been tested on serve - he has been broken only three times in five outings - and that spells trouble for Nakashima, who has lost three of his four ATP Tour finals in straight sets.
Four of Shelton's five wins over his older compatriot have been in routine fashion and this may follow suit.
Alternative Bet: Brandon Nakashima under 0.5 breaks of serve @ 6/4
Nakashima will surely be feeling the heat in his first Masters 1000 final and any nerves will be duly punished by Shelton, who is serving at the top of his game.
Zizou Bergs and Mensik were unable to force a single break-point opportunity against Shelton, while the American saved all four break-point opportunities he encountered in the semi-final stroll against Tien.
That makes this look an arduous task for Nakashima and, having lost all five showdowns with Shelton, he may struggle to break his compatriot's serve.
Ben Shelton v Brandon Nakashima Bet Builder Tip
Ben Shelton to win
Ben Shelton 10+ aces
Brandon Nakashima to win under 12.5 games
Pays 5/1
Shelton is the defending champion at the Canadian Open and it is hard to see him being beaten given that he has won all five previous meetings with Nakashima, which includes in this tournament last year.
Shelton served 19 aces in the victory over Nakashima last year and he could power to another win with another double-figure return on serve.
With Shelton having won all five of his matches in straight sets and being broken only three times, it is hard to see Nakashima putting up too much of a fight.
Learn more about how Bet Builders work in our Bet Builder guide.
Key Match Stats
Ben Shelton has won all five of his previous meetings with Brandon Nakashima
Four of Shelton's five wins over Nakashima have been in straight sets
All five of Shelton's victories in Montreal have finished 2-0
Shelton has won 14 of his last 17 matches
Nakashima has lost only one of his last 11 matches
Six of Nakashima's last 11 matches have gone to a deciding set
Read more tennis betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
