Jessica Pegula is unsurprisingly a warm order to defeat Leylah Fernandez in their US Open third-round encounter in New York City on Friday, but punters should not rule out entirely the possibility that the Canadian outsider could make a decent fight of their last-32 clash.
Pegula is no stranger to blitzing her way past opponents on many surfaces. But while the homestate player is giving herself the best possible opportunity of joining the ranks of Grand Slam singles champions, this is all happening fairly late on in the Buffalo native’s career - Pegula will turn 33 in February - and so punters must always be careful to evaluate the relative ability and potential of the two protagonists.
Both players know what it takes to compete in a US Open singles final. Pegula came up short against Aryna Sabalenka in the title match two years ago, while Fernandez had no answer to the brilliance of Emma Raducanu in the last Slam singles clash of 2021.
Jessica Pegula v Leylah Fernandez Tips Summary
Best Bet - Leylah Fernandez +5.5 games @ 4/5
Alternative Bet - Over 19.5 total games @ 4/5
Bet Builder - Leylah Fernandez +5.5 games; Over 19.5 total games; Leylah Fernandez to serve three or more aces @ 19/10
Jessica Pegula v Leylah Fernandez Prediction
Best Bet: Leylah Fernandez +5.5 games handicap @ 4/5
Jessica Pegula has achieved more in 2026 than her US Open third-round opponent Leylah Fernandez, but that does not necessarily mean that the American will have it all her own way in New York City on day six of the final Grand Slam tournament of the tennis season.
Fernandez has been displaying her considerable talents and potential for years now and it could be telling that she achieved one of her best results of the campaign when seeing off French Open champion Mirra Andreeva 6-1 6-4 in Toronto last month.
Andreeva may only now be starting to come back down to earth after capturing her first Grand Slam singles crown on the Paris clay in June, but if Fernandez can do that to the brilliant teenager then the Montreal native should not fear any opponent.
Let us also not forget that Fernandez is now ranked only 33rd in the world - she is the 31st seed in this Slam - but four years ago she reached a high of 13th on the WTA Tour chart.
There is still plenty of untapped ability as regards Fernandez and punters should not be surprised if sometime in the not-too-distant future she takes a big step forward.
It should also be remembered that time is of the essence for Pegula, who is playing under slightly more pressure than the average Grand Slam champion present or past, so anyone thinking of getting involved on the third-seeded favourite at relatively short prices should give plenty of consideration to their actions.
The match may be closer than the betting suggests, so handicap punters may get a run for their money backing outsider Fernandez with a start of 5.5 games.
Alternative Bet: Over 19.5 total games @ 4/5
The chance of the outsider making slightly more of a nuisance of herself against warm favourite Pegula has hopefully been explained in detail above. But if backing Fernandez directly is not for some punters, there also exists the option to go over the total games.
Punters would need 20 games to be contested to show a profit. A routine show of power from Pegula‘s racquet would not help matters, but Fernandez has kept it close enough in most of her previous clashes with the daughter of Buffalo Bills president Terry Pegula to think it is not guaranteed to be one-way traffic.
Jessica Pegula v Leylah Fernandez Bet Builder Tip
Leylah Fernandez +5.5 games handicap
Over 19.5 total games
Leylah Fernandez to serve three or more aces
Pays 19/10
The first two parts of our Bet Builder have already been dealt with, but for the third part of the punt it could be worth backing Leylah Fernandez to shine in the serving department against Jessica Pegula.
Fernandez served more aces than Pegula in previous encounters in Cincinnati in 2024 - five compared to three - and Washington DC in 2025 - five to the American’s two.
There is plenty of power in the Canadian’s serving arm and she should safely eclipse a tally of three bullets on Friday.
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Key Match Stats
Jessica Pegula leads Leylah Fernandez 3-1 in their personal series - she has won seven of the 10 sets the pair have contested - but their first three encounters were all competitive clashes
Jessica Pegula and Leylah Fernandez have both won their first two singles matches in straight sets at this year’s US Open. Pegula has dropped a total of just nine games in progressing to the last 32, while Fernandez has lost only 10
Jessica Pegula defeated a Grand Slam champion in Sofia Kenin in the last 64 in New York City. The 2020 Australian Open heroine won just four games in a one-sided encounter
Jessica Pegula has won 47 and lost only 12 of her main-tour matches in 2026. Leylah Fernandez’s record for the year is won 17 and lost 22 but she enjoyed a confidence-boosting win over Mirra Andreeva in Toronto last month
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
