Alex de Minaur is a regular in going deep in Grand Slam competitions and the world number nine should enjoy a routine first-round encounter at the French Open against less experienced rival Toby Samuel.
De Minaur has made the quarter-finals in six of his last eight Grand Slam appearances, which includes the 2024 French Open, and he had a good preparation for Paris with his semi-final run in Hamburg.
The Australian would be at his most vulnerable on clay, the only surface in which he has been unable to make an ATP Tour final, but that won’t concern him against Samuel.
The British world number 159 is getting set for his first appearance in the main draw of a Grand Slam, having recorded qualifying wins over Martin Damm Jr, David Goffin and Gonzalo Bueno.
However, a showdown with one of the ATP Tour’s elite will be like nothing he has experienced before and may be a steep learning curve for the 23-year-old from Winchester.
Alex de Minaur v Toby Samuel Tips Summary
Best Bet - Alex de Minaur to win 3-0 @ 4/5
Alternative Bet - Toby Samuel 3+ double faults @ 8/11
Bet Builder - Toby Samuel not to win a set, 5+ aces in the match & 5+ double faults in the match @ 11/4
Alex de Minaur v Toby Samuel Prediction
Best Bet: Alex de Minaur to win 3-0 @ 4/5
Clay has never been the preferred surface for De Minaur but there should be a big gulf in class when the world number nine takes on a player ranked 150 places below him.
Despite being hindered by the slower surface at times, De Minaur was a French Open quarter-finalist two seasons ago when he defeated Daniil Medvedev before bumping into Alexander Zverev.
De Minaur suffered early exits in Barcelona, Madrid and Rome but a semi-final effort in Hamburg was much more like it.
That tournament featured victories over Francisco Cerundolo, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Luciano Darderi and there was little shame in losing his last-four rumble with Tommy Paul.
Samuel is sure to feel some big-stage nerves and he won’t be allowed time to settle against one of the world’s best, suggesting that he may fall to a straight-sets defeat.
De Minaur is able to get the most out of his ability and the model professional can ease to a 3-0 success.
Alternative Bet: Toby Samuel 3+ double faults @ 8/11
Any nervous tension in the arms of Samuel could contribute to some double faults and he will be feeling pressure like he hasn’t before in the early stages of the contest.
De Minaur is one of the best returners in the game, so Samuel may feel the need to serve big, something which isn’t easy to do under these slower conditions.
The Briton served two double faults in his final qualifying win over Bueno but De Minaur is a cut above that rival and this is the biggest match of his career.
Alex de Minaur v Toby Samuel Bet Builder Tip
- Toby Samuel not to win a set
- 5+ aces in the match
- 5+ double faults in the match
Pays 11/4
This looks a big ask for Samuel on his debut in the main draw of a Grand Slam and it is hard to see him being consistent for long enough to claim a set.
The British youngster did serve 10 aces across his three qualifying wins, so may be able to play his part in seeing five or more in the match. De Minaur isn’t the most explosive server but he is accurate enough to find dangerous areas.
In reaching the semi-finals in Hamburg, De Minaur racked up 14 double faults in four matches and Samuel is sure to be feeling tight in the early part of the contest.
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Key Match Stats
- De Minaur has won three of his last four matches
- De Minaur has made the quarter-finals in six of his last eight Grand Slam appearances
- The Australian has made 14 double faults across his last four matches
- Seven of Samuel’s last nine clay-court matches have gone to a deciding set
- Samuel fired in 10 aces during his three qualifying wins
- The Briton is ranked 150 places below De Minaur in the world
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
