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Men's French Open Preview: Tips, Predictions, Key Contenders & Dark Horses

In the absence of two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz who is forced to miss out with a wrist injury, all eyes will be on world number one Jannik Sinner as he bids to maintain his recent spell of dominance.

The Italian has been untouchable ever since March, enjoying a 29-match winning streak by claiming Masters 1000 titles at Indian Wells, Miami, Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome.

Attention now turns to the French Open, where he is attempting to complete a career Grand Slam and go one better than when runner-up to Alcaraz last season.

Living with Sinner in this mood following an unbeaten clay-court campaign looks difficult and the Racing Post's Aaron Ashley expects the Italian to stamp his authority at Roland Garros.

Alexander Zverev, runner-up two years ago, 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic and the resurgent Casper Ruud spearhead the challenge and will be hoping to capitalise if Sinner slips up.

Men's French Open Tips and Predictions

Men's French Open Format

First Round Matches to Watch

Men's French Open Favourites

Data-Led Men's French Open Predictions & Analytics

Men's French Open Outright Prediction

Dark Horses to Watch

Expert Tip

Who Wins the Men's French Open?

Men's French Open Tips and Predictions

Outright Prediction: Jannik Sinner to win without dropping a set @ 3/1
Dark Horse Tip: Casper Ruud each-way @
22/1
Expert Tip: Rafael Jodar to win fourth quarter @
7/4

Men's French Open

Men's French Open Format

Each match in the men's singles competition is played over a best-of-five-sets format, with the main draw starting with 128 players and 32 of those being seeded.

The clay surface characteristics favours long rallies and high physical demand and the champion will have to win seven matches to be crowned.

First Round Matches to Watch

  • Stan Wawrinka v Jesper De Jong

At 41 years of age, Stan Wawrinka's best days are clearly behind him, but the 2015 French Open champion will be keen to put on a show against Dutchman Jesper De Jong, who has replaced the injured Arthur Fils.

De Jong has won his opening match in Paris in each of the last two years, downing Jack Draper in five sets in 20024 before being beaten in four sets by Carlos Alcaraz, while 12 months ago he took a set off Zverev in round two.

  • Cristian Garin v Learner Tien

A five-time winner on clay on the ATP Tour, Chile’s Cristian Garin is considered a specialist on the slower surface and the former Wimbledon quarter-finalist is dangerous to underestimate in these conditions.

Garin faces a top talent in Learner Tien, with the 20-year-old American bidding to build on his quarter-final run at the Australian Open. That said, the 18th seed has plenty to prove on clay and looks in for a battle.

  • Alexandre Muller v Stefanos Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitipas has been on a steep decline in recent seasons but the former world number three was runner-up to Novak Djokovic at the 2021 French Open.

The Greek star will have a vocal home crowd to contend with as he tackles Frenchman Alexandre Muller, who is a three-time finalist on the ATP Tour.

Men's French Open Favourites

Sinner dominates the French Open betting and is 3/10 to claim his fifth Grand Slam title in Paris.

Second seed Zverev, hoping to go one better than when runner-up to Alcaraz in 2024, is 11/1 while Djokovic is 12/1 to clinch a first Grand Slam title since the 2023 US Open.

Ruud, a two-time French Open runner-up, is 22/1 to make it third time lucky, while rising Spanish talent Rafael Jodar is 25/1.

Data-Led Men's French Open Predictions & Analytics

  • World number one Sinner has won 94% of his matches in 2026, losing just two of his 38 assignments and enjoying a 29-match winning streak
  • Ruud has a 75% winning percentage at the French Open, having made the final in both 2022 and 2023
  • Djokovic has failed to make the quarter-finals of the French Open only twice in 21 attempts, recording a win percentage of 86% in Paris

Men's French Open Outright Prediction

Sinner is a warm order to become the seventh man in the open era to complete the career Grand Slam and looks extremely tough to stop in his bid to record a sixth straight title.

The Italian has won the last three clay-court events in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome and he recorded straight-set victories over Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud in those respective finals.

During his 29-match winning streak, Sinner has dropped just three sets and, with no Alcaraz in the field, he could take the title without being properly tested.

Sinner made last season’s French Open final with six routine wins, accounting for Andrey Rublev, Alexander Bublik and Novak Djokovic 3-0, and there are few obvious dangers to him in the early stages of the tournament.

The Italian won the opening two sets in last season’s title decider with Alcaraz before running out of steam, but he could prove miles ahead of the opposition with his fierce rival sidelined.

Sinner is expected to stamp his authority and may be able to do so without even dropping a set.

Dark Horses to Watch

With Sinner expected to outclass the top half of the draw, the bottom half should be the focus for each-way punters and Ruud is the standout candidate.

The Norwegian was runner-up to Rafael Nadal at the 2022 French Open before coming out second best to Djokovic a year later and he has rediscovered his best form during this European clay-court campaign.

Ruud made the quarter-finals in Madrid before enjoying a runner-up effort to Sinner in Rome and reaching the last four in Geneva last time out was another big boost to his prospects.

Expert Tip

Zverev is the standout contender in the fourth quarter of the draw, but a rising Spanish star might just fancy his chances of causing an upset.

Spaniards have been the undisputed leaders in clay-court tennis, so Rafael Jodar has to be feared, especially as his immediate section of the draw is headed by seventh seed Taylor Fritz - who has never been beyond the fourth round in Paris.

Jodar recently claimed his first ATP Tour title at Grand Prix Hassan II in Morocco, while he also reached the semi-finals of the Barcelona Open and the quarters of both the Madrid Open and the Italian Open, so he is clearly a player in the sort of form needed to make Grand Slam breakthrough.

Who Wins the Men's French Open?

Sinner has the ability to blow this tournament apart and recent evidence suggests that he should make the most of Alcaraz’s absence to claim a first French Open crown.

Djokovic has played in only two tournaments since finishing runner-up to Alcaraz at the Australian Open in February, so may be undercooked, while Zverev has lost his last nine meetings with Sinner and is unlikely to overturn that form.

Ruud’s resurgence makes him a fascinating contender of those at bigger prices and he has made 19 clay-court finals during his career, winning 12 titles.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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