Two teams that exceeded expectations last season but have not quite got going yet this time around square off at EverBank Stadium on Sunday night when Jacksonville Jaguars host New England Patriots.
The Jaguars won the last eight games of the 2025 regular season in the NFL to top the AFC South with a 13-4 record before going down 27-24 to Buffalo Bills on Wild Card weekend; all coming on the back of a 4-13 season in 2024.
The Patriots had of course endured a similarly dire 2024 season before Mike Vrabel unsurprisingly claimed Coach of the Year honours by taking New England all the way to the Super Bowl on the back of an AFC East-winning 14-3 record.
Unfortunately for Vrabel and his players, Seattle Seahawks proved too strong in the Championship game, winning 29-13, and did so again in this season's opener, edging their Lumen Field clash 13-10 in week one.
However, the Pats bounced back with a 20-3 win over Pittsburgh Steelers last week, while the Jaguars are coming into this game on the back of a loss, having failed to back up their opening 34-10 success over Cleveland Browns by going down 20-13 in Denver.
Jacksonville Jaguars v New England Patriots Tips Summary
Best Bet - New England Patriots to win @ 5/4
Alternative Bet - Under 45.5 points @ 20/21
Bet Builder Tip - New England Patriots +3.5, TreVeyon Henderson over 38.5 rushing yards, Drake Maye under 222.5 passing yards & Parker Washington 50+ receiving yards @ 11/2
Jacksonville Jaguars v New England Patriots Prediction
Best Bet: New England Patriots to win @ 5/4
Neither of these two sides have yet to reach the heights of last season, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, and go into the game with similar 1-1 records.
However, defences have been strong for both, which sets this game up to be a tight closely-fought contest, and one that neither team is likely to walk away with.
The Pats have given up just one touchdown so far and only one field goal last week and, while Drake Maye has struggled in the first two games, the Pats have been up against elite defences and he will find it a lot easier to get closer to the kind of level that saw him involved in the MVP conversation last season against the Jags.
The Patriots were the AFC's leading scorers last season, second only to Los Angeles Rams in the NFL, but turnovers have been costly so far, with Maye having thrown four picks in the first two games with the Pats having coughed up only eight last season.
Sooner rather than later, Maye will get his offence going in the right direction and, with the Pats having owned Jacksonville in the past - leading the regular-season meetings 8-2, and 4-1 in the play-offs - Sunday looks like a good opportunity for things to start clicking.
Alternative Bet: Under 45.5 points @ 20/21
While there have been high-scoring games between these two in the past, Sunday's game does not look likely to be a shootout.
With the relative struggles of the offences, 46.5 points looks on the high side given New England have conceded just 16 points in two games, with both tallying 23 in total.
The Jaguars put 34 of their own on the board in their opener but the total was only 44 and the Pats will not be as easy to score against as the Browns were, while there were only 33 scored at Mile High in Denver last week.
Jacksonville Jaguars v New England Patriots Bet Builder Tip
- New England Patriots +3.5
- TreVeyon Henderson over 38.5 rushing yards
- Drake Maye under 222.5 passing yards
- Parker Washington 50+ receiving yards
Pays 11/2
While New England are fancied to upset the home side, the insurance of at least a field goal start kicks off the Bet Builder, with the Patriots' defeat this season coming by a margin of three points on the road at the Super Bowl champions.
TreVeyon Henderson missed week one but returned against the Steelers last week and made an immediate impact, scoring a touchdown while rushing for 76 yards from 16 carries, and he can pass his rushing line.
Henderson's return offers a two-pronged threat in the backfield alongside Rhamondre Stevenson, and the pair can help take the pressure off a yet-to-fire passing game.
Maye has tallied passing yard totals of 178 and 208 in his first two games and although he may cut out the interceptions which have hampered the Pats so far, the strengthened rushing attack will reduce the need to go through the air.
Parker Washington has been a favoured target of Trevor Lawrence this season, catching 12 of his 18 targeted passes for 181 yards and a touchdown and he should see enough passes to hit 50 on Sunday.
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Key Match Stats
- New England Patriots have a 1-1 record after losing 13-10 to Super Bowl champions Seattle before downing Pittsburgh 20-3
- Jacksonville Jaguars are also 1-1 after thrashing Cleveland 34-10 before losing 20-13 in Denver last week
- The Patriots have an 8-2 record in regular-season meetings with Jacksonville and 4-1 in the play-offs
- The Jaguars won the last meeting between these two sides, 32-16 at home in 2024
- New England were the leading scorers in the AFC last season with 490 points, second only to the Rams (518) in the NFL
- Only Houston Texans (295) and Denver Broncos (311) conceded fewer points in the AFC in 2025 than the Patriots (320), with the Jags not far behind (336)
Tactics, Form and Team News
Jacksonville guard Patrick Mekari and defensive end BJ Green II are expected to be sidelined for the next few weeks, while rookie defensive lineman Albert Regis is rated as doubtful after suffering an elbow injury.
For the Patriots, wide receiver AJ Brown and right guard Mike Onwenu are both on injured reserve with ankle injuries with Greg Van Roten already confirmed to start in place of the latter.
Linebackers Quintayvious Hutchins and Dre-Mont Jones have both been ruled out of Sunday's game, while tight end Eli Raridon and safety Craig Woodson are both listed as questionable.
Read more NFL betting tips and predictions on site.
This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
