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Tour Championship First-Round Leader Prediction and Tips

The PGA Tour season finale heads to East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for this week's Tour Championship, where the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup rankings battle it out.

A $10 million cheque will be awarded to the winner, who will also be crowned FedEx Cup champion and earn a five-year exemption on the PGA Tour.

Englishman Tommy Fleetwood broke his PGA duck in spectacular fashion when winning last year's event, holding off Patrick Cantlay and Russell Henley by three strokes.

Tom Kim and Open champion Ryan Fox will be the first pair teeing off at 16:00 BST on Thursday, while Matt Fitzpatrick and Scottie Scheffler are the final two to get their rounds started at 19:00.

Tour Championship First-Round Leader Tips Summary

Best bet - Rory McIlroy each-way @ 12/1
Alternative bet - Xander Schauffele each-way @ 14/1
Alternative bet - Chris Gotterup each-way @ 18/1

Tour Championship

Tour Championship First-Round Leader Prediction

Best bet: Rory McIlroy each-way @ 12/1

Rory McIlroy insisted he was "so far away" from where he needed to be after finishing 66th at the first play-off event, the St. Jude Championship, but he is a six-time Major winner for a reason and he bounced back straight away with a third-place effort at last week's BMW Championship.

The Northern Irishman had managed to move level with Wyndham Clark at the beginning of the back nine on Sunday, only for the latter to regain his composure after seeing a five-shot lead slip away and win the tournament by three shots over Cantlay.

While disappointed not to win, there were plenty of positives to take out of the week for McIlroy, who ranked in the top five for strokes gained off the tee and greens in regulation.

The Grand Slam winner's long game looks to be in fine shape and that will only aid his cause heading to East Lake, a beast of a course which requires distance off the tee and sharp approach play.

McIlroy's game has suited this layout and he has won this tournament three times - in 2016 when coming through a play-off, in 2019 when romping to a four-shot win and in 2022 when edging out Scheffler and Sungjae Im by one stroke.

The world number two has made a habit of starting off this event quickly and he was tied for the lead after 18 holes in 2020, while he was tied second in 2012 and 2019 and joint third in 2015.

McIlroy shared the lead after round one of last week's BMW Championship, making it the second time in his last four starts that he has been at the summit at the end of day one.

Alternative bet: Xander Schauffele each-way @ 14/1

Xander Schauffele is another player who boasts a strong East Lake record, with his second PGA Tour title coming on his Tour Championship debut in 2017.

The American also recorded the lowest gross score in 2021 and 2023 (joint-lowest alongside Viktor Hovland), so he clearly has a liking for this course and another bold showing is anticipated.

Schauffele has not won since the 2025 Baycurrent Classic, which raises doubts over whether he can end his trophy drought this week, but a strong start is achievable.

The world number 11 was leading after round one of the 2019 Tour Championship - his score of 64 two better than a group of four players, which included McIlroy.

Second at the Rocket Classic and tied seventh at the St. Jude Championship, Schauffele has shown positive signs in recent weeks and he can make an early statement on Thursday.

Alternative bet: Chris Gotterup each-way @ 18/1

Another player to consider in the first-round leader marker is Chris Gotterup, who finished tied 10th on his Tour Championship debut last year, in which a second-round 63 was the highlight.

The American's power makes him a good fit for this course and he has been in superb form this season, picking up wins at the Sony Open in Hawaii, Phoenix Open and John Deere Classic.

Gotterup was tied for the lead after round one of last week's BMW and another strong opening is anticipated for a player who is 11th in strokes gained off the tee this season.

Key Tournament Stats

  • East Lake Golf Club has hosted the Tour Championship in 1998, 2000 and 2002 before becoming the permanent home from 2004 onwards

  • The course in Atlanta will stage the 2027 edition before the tournament will rotate venues annually from 2028 - East Lake will be in the rotation

  • East Lake is a par 70 measuring 7,490 yards, with 12 par-fours, two par-fives and four par-threes

  • Russell Henley started with a 61 last year to open up a two-shot lead

  • Zach Johnson holds the 18-hole record, signing for a score of 60 in round three in 2007

  • Rory McIlroy has been tied third or better after the opening 18 holes in four of his 12 Tour Championship appearances

Read more golf betting tips and predictions on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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