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Steve Davies' Tour Championship Prediction and Tips

The curtain comes down on the 2026 PGA Tour season this week when the top 30 players from the FedEx Cup standings tee it up at East Lake in Atlanta for the Tour Championship, and the Racing Post's Steve Davies has three selections to follow.

Scottie Scheffler, the world number one and tournament favourite, will be the last man to tee off in round one on Thursday as he sits atop the FedEx Cup standings.

But the American will need to find his very best game to fend off a field including three-time winner Rory McIlroy, defending champion Tommy Fleetwood and a glut of the game's very best with their eyes on a mouthwatering $10 million first prize.

Tour Championship Tips Summary

Best Bet - Hideki Matsuyama to win and each-way @ 22/1
Alternative Bet - Patrick Cantlay to win and each-way @ 16/1
Alternative Bet - Scottie Scheffler to win @ 16/5

Tour Championship

Tour Championship Prediction

Best Bet: Hideki Matsuyama to Win each-way @ 22/1

Hideki Matsuyama might not head to East Lake with the course form of some of his rivals but he is playing well enough to win anywhere.

The Japanese number one and former Masters winner ended last year on a high when winning the Hero World Challenge, and while he has not won since he has contended.

His second-place finish at the Phoenix Open remains his best result of the year but he has been in impressive form over recent weeks at the 3M Open (T3), Rocket Classic (T5), Wyndham Championship (T7) and St. Jude Championship (T7).

An opening round 72 in last week's BMW Championship left him a mountain to climb though he responded solidly enough with rounds of 68-70-67 for a 28th-place finish.

Matsuyama has three top-10s on his last nine visits to East Lake and is a multiple winner on Bermudagrass greens.

He is not quite coming in under the radar but he is attractively priced for a player with a string of top-10s over recent weeks.

Alternative Bet: Patrick Cantlay to win and each-way @ 16/1

It has been four years since Patrick Cantlay last won on the PGA Tour, an astonishing stat for a player who has eight titles to his name on the US circuit.

The laser-straight American lifted the BMW Championship trophy in August 2022 but further glory has evaded him since.

But Cantlay has been knocking on the door this season and he shot four rounds of 68 or better last week to finish second at the BMW behind Wyndham Clark.

That is five top-10s since the Valspar at the end of March and now he returns to a course where he finished second last year, posting 15-under-par to finish three shots adrift of Tommy Fleetwood.

That is three times in the top six in the past five years at Atlanta for Cantlay, which is the definition of a genuine contender.

Alternative Bet: Scottie Scheffler to win @ 16/5

Every week when Scottie Scheffler tees it up he is the man to beat - even when he is getting beat.

Scheffler has had three top-four finishes in six visits to East Lake and you get the sense he will be laser focused this week to have the last word.

He has had 12 top fives in 2026, numbers any other player would give right and left arms for. Yet only two of those yielded wins, the American Express back in January and the St. Jude two weeks ago.

The fact he did win in Memphis was telling, especially as it seems as though he was under the weather last weekend at the BMW.

If he is well and his putts drop then he is still the man to beat. The odds say it and in a field this small he deserves all the respect.

Key Tour Championship Stats

  • East Lake GC is a 7,440-yard par 70, and a massive test of accuracy

  • One of the two par 5s is just 525 yards yet all four par 3s are over 200 yards and three of the par 4s are 495 yards or longer; there is water in play on eight holes

  • Tommy Fleetwood is the defending champion, his 18-under par total 12 months good enough for a three-stroke success over Russell Henley and Patrick Cantlay

  • Three-time winner Rory McIlroy is the only multiple winner in the 30-man field this week

  • Xander Schauffele (winner in 2017) also had the lowest gross score in 2020 and 2023, though he didn't win the FedEx Cup because of a handicap system which is no longer deployed

  • World number one Scottie Scheffler heads the FedEx Cup rankings going into the final event

  • East Lake is a Bermudagrass course, upon which McIlroy and Scheffler have won 12 times since 2008; the next best in the field on Bermudagrass is Hideki Matsuyama with five PGA Tour wins

Read more golf betting tips and predictions on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.

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