Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest Prediction: 7/4 Villa to make home advantage count

Chris Wood's 71st-minute penalty separated Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa in last week's Europa League semi-final first leg.

The return match takes place at Villa Park on Thursday and the duo come into the fixture having each rotated heavily in their most recent Premier League games, to contrasting effect.

Villa lost 2-1 at home to Tottenham on Sunday, while Forest were impressive 3-1 winners at Chelsea on Monday.

There is a true feel-good factor about Forest, but Unai Emery's unique Europa League pedigree might mean that it is Aston Villa who face either Freiburg or Braga in Istanbul on 20th May. 

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest Tips Summary

Best Bet - Aston Villa to win to nil @ 7/4
Alternative Bet - Emiliano Martinez - Over 3.5 Saves @ 5/2
Bet Builder - Igor Jesus 2+ shots, Elliot Anderson 2+ fouls committed, Elliot Anderson 2+ fouls won and Morgan Rogers 3+ shots @ 9/2

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest Prediction

Best Bet: Aston Villa to win to nil @ 7/4

Emery was roundly criticised for his selection against Spurs, but the record four-time Europa League-winning coach knows this competition better than anyone.

With his team looking likely to qualify for next season's UEFA Champions League through the Premier League, a first continental trophy and second in their history, after the 1982 European Cup, would be huge for the West Midlands club.

They beat Lille 2-0 and Bologna 4-0 in their last two knockout home games in this competition and may try to treat this fixture as the Europa League tie it is, rather than a more gung-ho occasion like most Premier League matches.

Forest, 1979 and 1980 European Cup winners, are unbeaten in their last six away games.

Monday's selection gamble paid off for Vitor Pereira, with his team now six points clear of the Premier League's bottom three.

However, a one-goal advantage may not be enough against the Villans, who beat them 3-1 at home on 3rd January.

Villa can win with a clean sheet, and are 15/2 to record a 2-0 triumph, which will see them through to the final.

Alternative Bet: Emiliano Martinez - Over 3.5 Saves @ 5/2

That doesn't mean that Forest won't have chances and Forest's 241 attempts are the second most in this season's Europa League.

Meanwhile, Villa goalkeepers Emiliano Martinez and Marco Bizot have combined for a tournament-high 51 saves, including Martinez's four last Thursday.

Central defenders Ezri Konsa and Pau Torres were two of the Villa players who didn't make it off the bench against Tottenham. 

Both are highly capable operators, but Forest boss Pereira's policy of fielding two strikers creates unfamiliar issues for their opposition, meaning Martinez may be busy again.

Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest Bet Builder Tip

• Igor Jesus 2+ shots

• Elliot Anderson 2+ fouls committed

• Elliot Anderson 2+ fouls won

• Morgan Rogers 3+ shots

  
  Pays 9/2

Igor Jesus successfully converted from the penalty spot in Monday's win over Chelsea and has scored seven times in the Europa League, the joint-most alongside Ludogorets midfielder Petar Stanic.

The Brazilian recorded three efforts last week and is expected to have two or more, having averaged 2.83 a game in UEFA's secondary competition.

Double that up with two or more fouls by Elliot Anderson. The England midfielder committed an infringement last week, one of 18 in this tournament, but could make multiple infractions, like he did in January's league fixture at Villa Park.

Anderson isn't always the aggressor, though, as he was himself fouled three times last week, so another case of two or more is an option.

Finally, a Villa player gets the nod for the final leg in this Bet Builder. Morgan Rogers had four shots last Thursday and will be doing his utmost to get his team back in the tie.

Learn more about how Bet Builders work in our Bet Builder guide.

Key Match Stats

• Aston Villa have won their last two Europa League home games without conceding

• Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last six away games in all competitions 

• Both clubs are previous European Cup winners - Villa in 1982 and Forest in 1979 and 1980

• Aston Villa's goalkeepers have made a Europa League-high 51 saves

• Forest striker Igor Jesus has recorded a tournament-high 34 attempts at goal

• Elliot Anderson was fouled three times in the first leg

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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.