Gab Sutton's 2025/26 Championship Play-Off Final Preview

It seems impossible to unpack this Championship Play-Off Final without referencing the events leading up to it.

For the first time in Play-Off history, not just in England but presumably around the world, the two teams that won the Semi-Finals of the competition won’t be the two teams that compete in the Final.

To our knowledge, there is no indication of anything like this ever happening before, in the history of professional football, certainly in England.

The question is, was the correct decision made?

On the one hand, Southampton CEO Phil Parsons might have a point to a certain extent that the punishment does seem a little bit excessive for the crime, on the face of things.

The advantage gained from the cheating was minor, and arguably smaller than that gained from diving for a free-kick which happens all the time; a set piece is a real in-play opportunity to score a goal, whereas a video of training is only a theoretical advantage, which doesn’t change a huge amount of what it takes to win a game.

On the other hand, it’s precisely because cheating has become so commonplace in the game, because we’re in an era where ethical fading has become the norm, that there’s something refreshing about cheating getting caught and punishment being served.

So, does it represent the serving of justice that Middlesbrough are in the Play-Off Final? Well, not fully. Boro didn’t win the Semi-Final, and from that point of view, by definition, their place feels unearned.

But they’ve been given a wonderful opportunity and they’ll be determined to grab it.

Form Guide

Middlesbrough’s promotion bid has been undermined by wasteful finishing, especially at the business end.

Since winning 2-1 at Sheffield United in February with an excellent performance at Bramall Lane that made them the new promotion favourites, they lost a key title clash with Coventry the following Monday, Kim Hellberg’s side have accrued a mere 18 points from 14 games.

Tommy Conway plays his best football out wide as a creator, and had a fantastic game in that regard in the goalless 1st leg draw with Southampton, particularly in the first half, and has an exceptional work ethic.

At the same time, he’s not a killer in front of goal - he’s unavailable, too, with an ankle injury - and profligacy has seen far too many dropped points for the Boro in winnable games.

Hull, on the other hand, finished their league season in even worse form, with Sergej Jakirovic’s side’s 2-1 final day victory over Norwich clawing them back a Play-Off spot, as their first success in seven.

From the start of February, in fact, the Tigers have only won four Championship matches in 17: one of them was against bottom side Sheffield Wednesday, who’d long been relegated by March, and one of them was a 1-0 win at Portsmouth where they only had two shots at goal all game to 22, and got their goal as a result of the opposition goalkeeper passing it to Matt Crooks.

To pay Hull their due, they’re up there because they have attacking players who can do damage, like 18-goal man Oli McBurnie, withdrawn forward Joe Gelhardt has 14, while wide men Liam Millar and the returning Mohamed Belloumi can do damage.

Belloumi, in fact, scored a sensational goal in the 2-0 Semi-Final 2nd leg, as he looks to establish himself in the Algeria fold ahead of the 2026 World Cup, and has made a tremendous difference since returning from injury.

Meanwhile, Ivor Pandur is a top goalkeeper - he’s made the most saves in the Championship this season - John Egan is a reliable defender and all-action Player of the Year Regan Slater has done his best to hold down the midfield on his own at times.

At the same time, Hull are fortunate to get to where they’ve got to, and are very much the underdogs.

The Tactics Board

It’s almost certain how the pattern of the game will take place: Middlesbrough are by far the better team between both boxes and should dominate the territory.

Even when Boro went on a run of dropping points in five consecutive home games against bottom half opposition, their performance levels didn’t drop an awful lot from when they’d been winning every week - it was just a case of not putting that round white thing between those two posts.

So, the likelihood of the Teessiders creating more chances than their opponents from Humberside is sky high: what’s less certain is what either team will do with the chances they do create.

If Boro had McBurnie up top, it would border on a no-contest, but because Hull have the capacity to slice open teams on turnovers in five or six isolated moments in a game, and they’ve consistently taken their chances this season, it’s more in doubt.

The Betting Angle

• Bet Builder - Middlesbrough - 'Full-Time Result' & 'Both Teams to Score' @ 3/1

Middlesbrough to win in 90 minutes and 'Both Teams to Score' can be backed at 3/1, and that’s our fancy for the action.

Morgan Whittaker could be the type of individualistic footballer who is likely to shine on the big occasion, and he’s 11/8 to score anytime, after finishing the league campaign with three goals in three.

An extended Bet Builder of 'Middlesbrough - Full-Time Result', 'Both Teams to Score' and 'Morgan Whittaker - To Score at Anytime' can be backed at a combined 7/1, with a £10 stake returning £79.80!

Will the justice taste sweet?

All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.