England and Sri Lanka sign off the 2026 international summer at The Oval in a match which has plenty riding on it.
After thumping the Lankans 3-0 in a T20I series and then going 1-0 up in the ODIs, all the talk was of Harry Brook's side completing a clean sweep.
However, Sri Lanka's against-the-odds 16-run success at Headingley on Thursday has levelled the ODI series to heighten the stakes at The Oval.
England v Sri Lanka Third ODI Tips Summary
Best Bet - Top Sri Lanka bowler - Eshan Malinga @ 15/4
Alternative Bet - Gus Atkinson - Over 39.5 player performance @ 5/6
Bet Builder - Team to make highest 1st 15 overs score - England, Over 8.5 catches, Race to 10 runs - Nissanka to beat Kam Mendis, Gus Atkinson 2+ wickets & T Banton 1+ fours @ 23/4
England v Sri Lanka Third ODI Prediction
Best Bet: Top Sri Lanka bowler - Eshan Malinga @ 15/4
England were given a rude awakening in Leeds, but have utterly bossed Sri Lanka throughout both disciplines of this white-ball campaign and should sign off with a win at The Oval.
The loss of Jos Buttler is a blow but England have the big-hitting batters and the destructive pace attack and, with complacency surely not an issue after the Leeds loss, the hosts can dot up.
For a best bet, however, consider Eshan Malinga to be top Sri Lanka bowler - he's being hung out at a whopping 15/4.
The right-arm quick looked a real handful at Headingley where he took 2-50. It might only take two wickets to land the odds and he looks more capable than most on his side.
Alternative Bet: Gus Atkinson - Over 39.5 player performance @ 5/6
England's attack, on the other hand, is blessed with seam stars, none in better nick than Gus Atkinson.
Atkinson's player performance is set at 39.5 and, given that he is a fairly genuine all-rounder - he bats at No.8 and has a Test hundred to his name - he can soar past that mark.
In his last nine ODIs he has only twice fallen short of 39.5 with a run which reads 66-34-93-58-23-60-41-44-40.
England v Sri Lanka Third ODI Bet Builder Tip
Team to make highest 1st 15 overs score – England
Over 8.5 catches
Race to 10 runs - Nissanka to beat Kam Mendis
Gus Atkinson 2+ wickets
T Banton 1+ fours
Pays 23/4
It can never quite be a given, but the power at the top of the England order plus the new-ball seam attack at the hosts' disposal, means the Lions will surely pile up the higher first 15 over score.
In the first ODI they bossed that metric by 90 runs to 60. In the second, the game they lost, they also won the first 15-overs matchbet, 110-71.
There were 10 catches taken at Headingley and on a true Oval surface in decent weather, expect more catches than any other type of dismissal. Expect over 8.5 of them anyway.
Pathum Nissanka will face first so has an immediate scorecard advantage over opening partner Kamindu Mendis in a race to 10 runs. He got there first at Headingley and can do so again at The Oval.
Gus Atkinson has taken two or more wickets in five of his last 10 ODIs, while Tom Banton has hit two and seven fours in his two knocks.
Take Atkinson to bag two or more wickets and Banton to hit at least one four.
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Key Match Stats
Joe Root has scored 555 runs in his last eight ODI matches at 69.4 per innings
Kusal Mendis has scored 428 runs in his last eight ODI knocks at 53.50 and has not scored less than 20 during that time
England captain Harry Brook has scored 238 runs in five innings in five white-ball knocks vs Sri Lanka this summer
Gus Atkinson has taken 16 wickets in his last 10 ODIs, taking two or more on five occasions
Sri Lanka seamer Asitha Fernando has taken at least one wicket in 15 of his last 17 ODIs
Tactics, Form and Team News
Jordan Cox is set to take over wicket-keeping duties after Jos Buttler tweaked his hamstring in England's failed run chase at Headingley on Thursday.
Rehan Ahmed keeps his place with Adil Rashid ruled out by a hand injury.
Expected England XI: Duckett, Banton, Root, Brook (cap), Cox (wkt), Jacks, Ahmed, Overton, Atkinson, Archer, Tongue.
Malinga looks set to keep his place after taking 2-50 at Headingley, where he replaced Dushmanta Chameera.
Expected Sri Lanka XI: Nisanka, Kam Mendis, Kus Mendis (cap/wkt), Rathnayaka, Assalanka, Liyanaga, Wellalage, Colombage, Malinga, Fernando, Madushanka.
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
