The quarter-final lineup at Wimbledon will be set by late on Monday when the remaining fourth-round matchups are over, which includes an intriguing tie between Alex de Minaur and Flavio Cobolli.
Both De Minaur and Cobolli are bidding for a second last-eight berth at Wimbledon.
De Minaur advanced to that stage at the All-England Club in 2024, before Cobolli accomplished the same feat last summer.
It is no surprise that both men are once again making noise at this tournament.
De Minaur has been a staple of the top 10 for many years now and is currently the No. 6 player in the world, while Cobolli has climbed to 10th in the rankings and made a recent run to the French Open semifinals.
Let’s take a look at the odds and the best bets to make in advance of this showdown between De Minaur and Cobolli.
Alex de Minaur vs. Flavio Cobolli betting picks and predictions
Flavio Cobolli +5.5 games (-120)
Cobolli being priced as a big underdog (-300) is without question one of the most curious lines of the Championships to date.
It is true that grass is a much different surface from the clay on which Cobolli powered his way into the Roland Garros semis, but the Italian has already proven that he can achieve success on the green stuff.
He reached the quarters here 12 months ago before losing to Novak Djokovic, beating Jakub Mensik and former runner-up Marin Cilic along the way.
There is more pressure on De Minaur, too. The 27-year-old has never reached a Grand Slam semi-final, and he has a golden chance to do so at this tournament as the highest seed remaining in his quarter of the bracket (No. 4 Ben Shelton lost in the opening round).
The winner of this match will face either Grigor Dimitrov or Arthur Fery – two wild-card entries – in the quarters on Wednesday.
De Minaur is by no means in terrible form at the moment, but he lost meekly to Mensik in round three of the French Open, got upset by Kamil Majchrzak in the Hertogenbosch title match and fell to Brandon Nakashima 7-5, 6-3 in the Queen’s Club quarters.
Over 37.5 games (-120)
This play correlates nicely with Cobolli +5.5 games.
After all, De Minaur is a considerable favorite in this matchup – he obviously is not expected to get blown off the court in swift fashion.
The key is for Cobolli to make this match competitive, and he should be able to do it.
In fact, competitive matches seem to be the norm for Cobolli.
Dating back to the French Open final against Alexander Zverev, two of the 24-year-old's last four Grand Slam matches have been five-setters.
The other two were four-setters, including a dramatic 1-6, 7-6(5), 6-3, 7-6(10-8) victory over Mariano Navone in the Wimbledon first round.
A total of 37.5 games is not particularly sizable, so any four-set result should sail over the number.
Over 0.5 tiebreakers (-120)
These two players most recently faced eachother on the indoor hard courts of Vienna in 2024, when the first set went to a tiebreaker before Cobolli retired in the second due to injury.
‘Breakers are nothing out of the ordinary for Cobolli. Wimbledon’s No. 9 seed has played a total of six through three rounds – two in each of his three matches.
That is not exactly a surprise given that grass-court tennis produces more tiebreakers than any other surface because the fast, slick nature of it rewards good serving and makes it difficult for opponents to break.
That’s when tiebreakers are required to decide things.
De Minaur may be one of the best returners in the sport, but Cobolli did not get broken a single time over the last four sets against Karen Khachanov on Saturday.
Alex de Minaur vs. Flavio Cobolli odds
Alex de Minaur | -400 |
Flavio Cobolli | +300 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
