Fourth-round action at Wimbledon gets underway on Sunday and the order of play is headlined by a marquee matchup in the women's draw between Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka.
Sabalenka and Osaka will be squaring off in the fourth round of a second consecutive Grand Slam when they meet again at Wimbledon on Sunday.
They faced each other at the French Open, where Sabalenka prevailed 7-5 6-3.
Osaka will hope that a change of surface from clay to grass turns the tide in her favor and that is certainly well within the realm of possibility, even if she is a considerable underdog against the world No.1 and top seed.
Let's take a look at the odds and the best bets to make in advance of this showdown between Sabalenka and Osaka.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka betting picks and predictions
Naomi Osaka +1.5 sets (-140)
At the very least, Osaka should be able to make this match competitive. Since her loss to Sabalenka at Roland Garros, the Japanese star has been in outstanding form on grass.
She is 7-1 on the green stuff this summer and her only loss came in the form of a retirement due to injury while playing Karolina Muchova in the Bad Homburg final.
Osaka has recovered from that foot problem to completely destroy her first three opponents at the All England Club. She is 6-0 in total sets through three rounds, has not been pushed to a single tiebreaker and only one set has been closer than 6-3.
She was especially impressive during a 6-1 6-3 rout of Daria Kasatkina on Friday.
Sabalenka is also playing well, although three of her last four sets have been no more lopsided than 6-4 and McCartney Kessler battled to 11-9 in their second-set tiebreaker on Wednesday.
The Belarusian may be in line for another victory on Sunday but look for Osaka to grab a set.
Over 21.5 games (-125)
Their recent French Open showdown just barely stayed under this number, as Sabalenka advanced to the quarterfinals with a 7-5 6-3 success.
The move from clay to grass alone should make up the necessary difference.
Margins are generally much smaller on this surface, as it plays very fast and makes holding serve significantly easier. With fewer service breaks, more tiebreakers and more games are played.
Although they have played only one tiebreaker between them so far this fortnight, both women are serving well.
Sabalenka has dropped serve just four times through three matches, while Osaka has been broken only twice so far and has faced just one break point over the past two rounds.
Sabalenka and Osaka have squared off on four previous occasions. Two encounters have required a third set, including at the 2018 U.S. Open, which ended in a 6-3 2-6 6-4 win for the Japanese.
Prior to last month's French Open matchup, they collided on the red clay of Madrid in April. Sabalenka survived in three sets, with a total of 30 games being played.
Over 14.5 total aces (-110)
This play correlates nicely with the Over 21.5 games wager, as a longer match naturally gives each player more opportunities to hit aces.
With these two women involved, though, they might not even require a third set to get over this number.
Their Roland Garros tilt produced 14 aces and that was a relatively short match on clay. In Madrid, they combined for 15 aces (9 for Osaka and 6 for Sabalenka).
So far this fortnight, Sabalenka is averaging 0.75 aces per service game; Osaka checks in at 0.8 per service game.
It should also be noted that Sabalenka is getting aced on 6.7 percent of her return points over the past 52 weeks. That is the third-highest rate among top-50 players.
For all of her attributes, the Belarusian really isn't great at getting her racket on the ball when her opponent is serving.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka odds
Aryna Sabalenka | -225 |
Naomi Osaka | +175 |
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This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.
